NCAA Pick of the Day 03/11/25 (134-102-1 ): Fairfield +4.5 -110

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While Fairfield's 11-19 record may not impress, their statistical profile reveals a team that excels at protecting the basketball, ranking 54th nationally in low turnover rate—a crucial factor in tournament play where each possession gains magnified importance. The Stags operate at a deliberately slow pace (275th) and rely heavily on midrange shooting (76th), which creates a possession-limiting style that naturally keeps games closer than the talent disparity might suggest. Sacred Heart's defensive vulnerability shows in their allowance of three-point attempts (302nd), permitting opponents to launch from deep at a concerning 42.8% frequency rate. Despite Fairfield's own inefficient shooting from beyond the arc (274th), the combination of their ball security and Sacred Heart's quick tempo (52nd) creates a clash of styles that typically favors the more deliberate team in tournament settings. Both teams struggle to generate free throws (Fairfield 345th, Sacred Heart 336th), essentially neutralizing that aspect of the game and making the 4.5-point spread appear slightly inflated for a matchup between teams separated by just two wins in the regular season. The Stags' disciplined approach should frustrate Sacred Heart's more free-flowing offensive style (34th in passing), keeping this contest within the number for a cover.

SQ's Projection: FAIR 74 - SHU 71.

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