NCAA Pick of the Day 02/27/25 (129-96-1): Utah Tech -2.5 -115

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Analysis:

We continue our trend of mid major home teams that are in the renowned "SQ Spots" that, if you're not a member and looking for on your own, then I'm not sure what you're learning around here... I digress...

Today's matchup features an instate rivalry where we run into an unlucky side in Utah Tech, the Trailblazers have four wins (21 losses) on the season but ShotQuality expects more than double, with 9-16 being their SQ Record.

Both teams out of the Beehive State are going to play at the rim. They are both in the bottom 30 teams in terms of attempts allowed up close and top 15 in fewest shots from deep allowed. Southern Utah is, in fact, first in fewest threes allowed, so shooting from distance will have about as little impact in this game as in any you might see in Division I right now. Rare air.

That said, our side, Utah TECH (please bet the right one), is the third best defense against shots at the rim amongst the WAC, per ShotQuality, while Southern Utah is ninth best. That is a substantial difference and more than enough to drive the value, at home, for this one possession favorite.

ShotQuality is giving credit to Southern Utah for some bad luck at the rim, too, so if that were to continue rather than trend towards the mean, this could be an even bigger win than the model is projecting. Lay it with Tech.

SQ's Projection: UTT 74.5 - SUU 67.5.

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