NCAA Pick of the Day 01/24/25 (112-87): Iowa -3 -110

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Analysis:

Most analytic sites use box scores and the actual accomplishments, or lack there of, of the teams and players that make up the sport of college basketball. ShotQuality is a bit different, and instead uses home cooked estimations of the value of each shot to score the game based on the quality of the attempt taken rather than the binary, luck influenced result.

Now, if you used only the box scores, you might arrive at the conclusion that Penn St (13-6) is a better team in the Big 12 than Iowa (12-7). What if I told you, however, that SQ expected the Hawkeyes to beat Minnesota and Michigan by multiple possessions. Those losses were fueled by 3 of 21 shooting from deep and 32 of 77 shooting from inside the arc in each of those games, respectively. This is a buy low chance at home.

On the other side, Penn St. looked much better than expected when they held their own in their last game on the road against Michigan State. The Nittany Lions were expected to lose 92-76, which would likely give the market more concern as they head into another ferocious, fast moving offensive barrage in Iowa. SQ says to evaluate that game as though it was 16 points, not the 90-85 result Penn St walked away with. This is a sell high chance because they probably should have gotten run off the floor by Izzo and Co.

Iowa creates great opportunity for scoring through elite passing (2nd), rim efficiency (8th), spacing (9th), tempo (11th), a low turnover rate (12th) and 3PT efficiency (13th). Their weakness is they allow far too many shots at the rim on defense (336th), but that comes in exchange from chasing opponents off the 3PT line.

If Iowa shoots cold, it will always look ugly, but this offense will put us in position to win analytically through sheer volume of high quality looks with a good limit on opponent ShotQuality. Lay the number, even at four since it moved since this was released to SQB members at 7:45am ET.

SQ's Projection: IOWA 83 - PSU 77 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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