NCAA Pick of the Day 03/12/25 (134-103-1): Charlotte +3.5 -110

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Charlotte enters this matchup with several compelling strengths, ranking 14th nationally in free throw rate, 44th in limiting turnovers, and 60th in transition efficiency—all factors that should help them generate quality offensive possessions. Rice counters with their own elite free throw rate (10th nationally) and impressive post-up frequency (18th), but their transition game ranks dead last at 360th and they're a poor free throw shooting team at 68.5% (306th). The defensive matchup tilts interestingly as Charlotte allows a high frequency of rim attacks (348th) while Rice excels at defending those same shots (21st), yet neither team forces many turnovers (Charlotte 326th, Rice 343rd). Charlotte's deliberate pace (318th) should help neutralize Rice's advantages and allow their superior ball security and transition effectiveness to generate enough high-percentage opportunities. The 49ers should keep this close throughout with their ability to get to the line frequently and capitalize in the open court when opportunities arise. They might even win, as the SQB model projects. It should probably be a pick'em, take the points.

SQ's Projection: CHAR 74 - RICE 69.

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