Max-a-Million Best Bets: Fever vs Aces
2024-09-10 Max Hofmeyer

Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to a Wednesday edition of WNBA best bets and analysis. I am going to be breaking down one of the most highly anticipated WNBA games between the Indiana Fever and the Las Vegas Aces.

The Fever have been absolutely scorching since the break winning 8 of their last 10 games! They will have to really prove it though against a team like the Aces who is going for their 3rd straight championship. I've got a play on the total and plenty of props in this one so let's dive in.


1. Fever vs Aces Over 177.5 (-110)

I like the over here as these are two of the fastest paced teams in the league.

  • Aces are 1st in Tempo

  • Fever are 3rd in Tempo

The Fever have had great success getting the ball to Clark and running. I expect that to continue, and we already know the Aces want to run as well.

These teams are both great offensively as well.

  • Aces are 4th in Adjusted SQ Offense

  • Fever are 3rd in Adjusted SQ Offense

A fast paced game and efficient offense means sign me up for an over. It also means that I am going to be taking some overs for certain player props.

2. Caitlin Clark Over 22.5 Pts (-120 FD)

3. Caitlin Clark Over 9.5 Ast (-108 FD)

Playing the over here on both Clark's points and assists. As you can see in the image above, she has been on fire her last 5 games.

  • Clark is Averaging 27 Points

  • Clark is Averaging 26 SQ Points

Being on fire is one thing but SQ has agreed with her shooting numbers as she has been expected 26 points which would still be an over.

Like the points prop, she has been going over frequently on the assist prop. In her last 5 games, she has 12, 12, 10, 8, and 12 assists.

I expect her to get into double digits again as there should be more possessions in this game with the fast tempo compared to the other recent games.

4. Kelsey Mitchell Over 20.5 Pts (-118 FD)

I am backing another Fever player here for similar reasons. Mitchell has been just as good as Clark in her last 5 games.

  • Mitchell is Averaging 24 Points

  • Mitchell is Averaging 24 SQ Points

Mitchell has been on fire averaging 24 points and again SQ has agreed with this result due to higher volume of quality shooting. I think this has been a byproduct of Fever playing at a faster pace than they started the year at.

Again, the more possessions there are in a game I can only expect that volume to continue. Just need to avoid a cold shooting night from either and play to their averages.

5. A'ja Wilson Over 26.5 Pts (-106 FD)

Call me a square but I've got one more over! The data backs up these numbers in her last 5 games so we will be trusting SQ again.

  • Wilson is Averaging 32 Points

  • Wilson is Averaging 28 SQ Points

Wilson is actually expected to regress. However, regressing to 28 SQ Points would still be an over for us!

Also, Wilson is coming off some much needed rest and will be coming into this one fresh. I think she is highly motivated to go into Clark's arena and put on a show in front of a large crowd.

I think this game is going to be fun so pull up a chair and enjoy. These plays are all very correlated so be wise. You can take them all at half units, you can pick your favorites, or you can trust Max-a-Million and take them all. Either way, best of luck however you slice it up!


About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give him a follow on X!

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