Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires as this is it for the WNBA. This series has been nothing short of electric so it should come as no surprise that we are heading to New York for game 5. The game starts at 8:00 pm so make sure to clear your schedule, get your multi-tv set up going if you need to, and read this article to get the best edge in betting on hoops.

Now that we have a 4 game sample size between these teams, we have some angles we should be able to exploit in the prop market. I've got no action on the side or total but I do have a lean based on the actual results compared to the SQ scores so let's dive in.

These teams have been scoring at a solid rate averaging about 163 points in each game (which does include an OT in game 1). However, ShotQuality has had them slightly underperforming based on the quality of shots taken in each game. SQ has expected an average of about 169 points in each contest between these teams.

Although there is value, I am just going to lean to the over 156.5 and leave it up to you whether you want to play or not. The main reason being is because this a game 5 of the WNBA finals where the stakes are at their highest. This sometimes can create tightness on offense, extra effort on defense, and the refs to swallow a whistle and allow the players to dictate the result on their own. I still think there is enough value on a couple of these props so don't worry we will have bets.

I will be looking to back Breanna Stewart as she has been ice cold all series but still averaging 20 points per game. That doesn't sound bad on paper but SQ has her projected to be averaging 26 SQ points per game which is substantially greater than her point total of 20.5.

Stewart has been getting plenty of looks but just has not been converting on these attempts. In a game 5 with the WNBA finals on the line, I would expect that volume to be similar so if she does go under it will likely be due to cold shooting variance. If she plays to her normal standard or even overperforms, she should have no problem going over this total.

BET: Breanna Stewart Over 20.5 Pts (-108 FD)

Another player I will be backing is Courtney Williams of the Minnesota Lynx. She has gone over her point total in 3 of the 4 games this series scoring 23, 15, 12 and 15 points. SQ actually has projected her to go over her total in all 4 games with an SQ score of 20, 14, 20 and 18 points!

I think this has been a good matchup for her all series and she has had the confidence to look for her shot. Regardless of whether she has been hot or cold, the shooting volume has been through the roof this series and I would expect that to continue tonight.

BET: Courtney Williams Over 13.5 Pts (-128 FD)

Best of luck to anyone that is tailing! Also, NBA starts this week and CBB starts in two weeks so don't forget to get those early season discounts!

About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give Max a follow on X!