Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to best bets for game 3 of the WNBA finals. The Lynx were able to get the job done and get a split in the first two games playing in New York. I'd consider coming home for game 3 with the series all knotted was a success.

ShotQuality has told a different story this series as SQ has projected the Liberty to be up 2-0 in this series based on the quality of shots taken each game. A cold shooting night in game 1 set us up for some great betting opportunities that we capitalized on in game 2. Let's hope to do the same here as I've got a pair of props that I like for tonight.

For our first play I am looking to fade Napheesa Collier as she has struggled against the Liberty thus far. So far she has scored 21 points and 16 points in this series. However, ShotQuality had her overperforming expectation in both games as SQ had her scoring 18 and 14 points based on the quality of shots in those game.

This has been a trend for her not just in the finals, but in the regular season as well. Collier has faced off against the Liberty 3 times in the regular season and in those games she averaged 18 points and 16.7 SQ points per game. The Liberty have had an answer for her all year and I don't expect that to change tonight so I am playing the under.

BET: Napheesa Collier Under 20.5 points (-122)

For our other prop, I am looking to back Sabrina Ionescu here as she has been quietly going over her three point prop with consistency and has been projected to do even better. Ionescu has made 3+ threes in 6 of her last 7 games and the line currently sits at 2.5 threes. In this series she has been cold from deep:

• Game 1: 33.3% Actual vs 38.1% Expected

• Game 2: 40% Actual vs 46.7% Expected

She has been relatively held in check so far but I think she is in for a breakout finals performance tonight. I think she especially goes off tonight when you consider the matchup.

The Lynx are one of the worst teams defending the deep ball this season.

• Lynx are 10th in Open 3 Frequency

• Lynx are 12th in Open 3 SQ Defense

They are allowing open shots from deep often and a sharpshooter like Sabrina should make them pay for it here tonight so I am taking the juicy prop and also putting some money on the alternate line. How you allocate your units here is up to you but I risked 1.35u and 0.5u on these props.

BET: Sabrina Ionescu 3+ 3PM (-135)

BET: Sabrina Ionescu 4+ 3PM (+195)

Best of luck to anyone tailing and don't forget to check out our early season discounts as NBA and CBB are right around the corner so don't wait!

About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give Max a follow on X!