NCAA Pick of the Day 11/24/24 (88-62): Loyola Marymount +2.5 -110

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Analysis:

Let the data do the work. Loyola Marymount is 0-3 but carries a ShotQuality record of 2-1. They were expected to win both their games against North Dakota and UC Irvine, but a combination of bad luck at the rim and hot opponent shooting has led to a misunderstanding of their quality in the market.

The North Dakota loss by 4 points was seen as a near 20-point win by ShotQuality's location based analysis of the process from which each shot is developed. Plainly, LMU took better looks and would very likely win if the game was replayed and they didn't shoot a bottom-of-the-barrel 10 of 30 on shots at the rim. The bright side, and the process based side, is that they developed that many looks close to the basket. More so, they should only do better than 33% this time around, and the market might take their loss at face value.

Belmont is a team that has just played two close games with Oral Roberts and Air Force, two teams that are currently ranked close to 200th in the current landscape of 360 teams. Belmont beat both by eight points, but were expected to lose to Air Force by a point and only beat Oral Roberts by five. Neither are so far off call the results unlucky or untrue, but ShotQuality's estimations put Belmont in that, similar, 200-ish ranking early in the season, which is much lower than LMUs low 100s ranking.

That is all a part of the same picture. LMU is likely coming at a cheaper price than they should be, as ShotQuality's data indicates the line could be favoring the wrong side, or, at the least, expects an even contest. Grab the +2.5 with Loyola Marymount.

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