Welcome back, Max-a-Millionaires, to a playoff edition of WNBA best bets and analysis. Today we are taking a look at game two of these playoff best of three series. Personally, I am not a huge fan of the best of three but I am still excited for these potential elimination games.

For our first game, we got the Sun who are going up against the young Indiana Fever squad. Game one was an easy win for the Sun but ShotQuality didn't expect it to be as easy as it might have appeared.

Looking at the ShotQuality score above, the Fever massively underperformed scoring 69 points on an expected 84. I think they bounce back here but rather than taking the Fever, I am going with the over because I like both of these offenses.

• Fever are 1st in SQ Shot Selection

• Sun are 2nd in SQ Shot Selection

These are the two best teams in offensive shot selection which measures a team's ability to generate high value attempts. I am expecting that to continue here and hopefully these high value shots result in points on the scoreboard.

Another reason I am going with the over rather than the Fever is because of Indiana's atrocious defense.

• Fever are 11th in Adj SQ Defense

The Fever did not make the playoffs based on their defensive performance but rather the offense. This is the 2nd worst defense in the league and I think the Sun continue to take advantage like they did in game one scoring 90+ points. If I had to take a side I think the Fever bounce back but my best bet is the over.

Bet: Sun vs Fever Over 163.5

Next up on the card is the late game between the Lynx and the Mercury. This game also saw the favorite win game one but it was actually the losing Mercury team that overperformed massively.

The Mercury scored 95 points but were only expected to score 80 based on the quality of shots taken. The Mercury shot 52% on 27 three point attempts which was their 2nd best of the entire season! I don't expect that to continue again which is why I am taking the Lynx.

This season, the Mercury have attempted contested three pointers at the highest rate. This is the biggest reason for why they overperformed in game one by 15 points! I am fully expecting the Mercury three point shooting to regress in this one and not to continue to make those contested shots.

The Lynx did overperform scoring 102 points but their expected score was still 94! Outside of a hot first quarter, the Lynx were just generating good shots on a poor Mercury defense. I would expect that trend to continue here and is why I am backing the Lynx to win this one by double digits.

Bet: Lynx -9

About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give Max a follow on X!