The ShotQualityBets Model is projecting 132.3 points in this game between UCSD and Cal Poly, giving a clear value opportunity on the Under. Unders have been strong for the Model in the last couple of weeks, and qualifying them with team and regression data to pinpoint the best ones continues to be an optimal strategy. In this matchup we see two teams with a pace rating in the bottom 100 of Division 1, as well as plenty of expected regression in terms of amount of points per game. In UCSD conference games, the Tritons are shooting 57% at the rim and their opponents are shooting 56%. Both of those make-rates are expected to be lower by 2.3% and 3.9%, respectively, based on the quality of the shots generated. This is what gives SQ the confidence to call UCSD a top 60 defense on shots at the rim, despite some poor performance. Cal Poly is the perfect opponent for the true efficiency of the Triton defense to show, the Mustangs rank 340th in Rim efficiency. Expect them to try for the rim but settle for midrange, as they have the 15th highest rate of settling for the worst shot type in basketball. UCSD forces the 50th most midrange too, so this has the potential for a true defensive clinic. Cal Poly might be 354th in offense, but they do have a 247th ranked defense per SQ and can defend the rim decently themselves, they also do not let opponents take many 3PT shots, 13th least by percentage. Trust the model and the data, the Under is the pick.
👀 See the full matchup preview for UCSD Cal Poly here.
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