Happy St. Patrick's day everyone but more importantly...HAPPY SELECTION SUNDAY! What a beautiful and glorious day to be alive and bet some basketball. Let's end the season on a high note before we head into the big dance. I've got two bets today and will be looking to make plays in the A10 championship and B10 championship.
Max-a-Million Best Bets:
Duquesne +2.5
Wisconsin vs Illinois Under 149 (Best Bet)
1. Duquesne +2.5
This A10 Championship is certainly an intriguing one as we have the 6 and 5 seeds battling it out for an automatic bid. So far this tournament has been a perfect synopsis of what the regular season has been for the A10 as there is not much separation in this league.
I will be riding with the Dukes here as underdogs as I think this should be more of a pick. Duquesne won the only regular season matchup very recently on March 5th by a score of 69-59. What is promising about that result, is SQ agreed with the win and projected a 68-60 win for Duquesne.
I think the difference here will be the turnover battle.
Duquesne is 55th in Turnovers Forced
VCU is 250th in Turnover Rate
If the Dukes can create extra possessions via the turnovers, it could be the edge that helps separate them in a close game. Also, I am concerned about the style that VCU plays.
VCU is 40th in 3pt Frequency
The Rams shoot a lot of threes and this is now their 4th game in just 5 days so it is possible the shooting isn't up to standard as tired legs will impact offense more than defense. Additionally, Duquesne has been good all year defending the three.
Duquesne is 70th in 3pt Defense
I think this one comes down to the wire so having a +2.5 underdog in pocket is the side I am more comfortable with. I also took a piece of the ML at +120 as well.
2. Wisconsin vs Illinois Under 149 (Best Bet)
Next up is the last game before Selection Sunday, the B10 Championship. I will be riding with the under here as I think defense wins and the pace is played at a slower tempo than expected.
Illinois has struggled defensively at times, but overall their rating isn't too bad.
Illinois is 13th in Defensive Shot Selection
Illinois is 55th in Adjusted SQ Defense
That may come to as surprise to some if you watched them play yesterday against Nebraska but the Huskers have been hot offensively. Wisconsin on the other hand, has been one of the most underrated defenses in the league.
Wisconsin is 33rd in Defensive Shot Selection
Wisconsin is 2nd in Adjusted SQ Defense
The Badgers have flexed this underrated defense too only giving up 56 to Maryland, 61 to Northwestern, and 75 to Purdue in OT during this tournament run.
The pace in this game is the biggest question mark.
Wisconsin is 307th in Tempo
Illinois is 57th in Tempo
I think the pace of this game will be played closer to Wisconsin's style. This will be Illinois' 3rd straight game and they rank 239th in bench minutes. After leaving it all out on the floor to come back against Nebraska, the inclination to run shouldn't be there as much.
Wisconsin is now playing their 4th straight game including an OT thriller yesterday. They already want to play slow so we don't have to worry about the Badgers running the floor.
Even if Illinois does try to run, Wisconsin is great defensively in transition.
Wisconsin is 48th in Transition Defensive Efficiency
Wisconsin is 37th in Transition Defensive Frequency
The Badgers should be able to force Illinois into a half court style game where they aren't nearly as effective ranking 101st in half court offensive efficiency.
Since this is the best bet, I will give one more little nugget here. These teams played on March 2nd and that one saw 174 points combined! However, ShotQuality says these teams overperformed massively as the projected total in that one was 146 points. Those who join the live shows know we love that regression so let's take the under here and bet on just that.
Cheers everyone, enjoy the greatest time of the year!
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. He did this successfully last season for us picking 56% and profiting 28.5u on over 300 plays! Currently he sits at 59-62-1 and will hope to have a repeat of last season. Make sure to give him a follow on X!
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