In The Crosshairs Record: 59-48
3/4 Card:
NC State +6.5 (7:00pm ET – ESPN)
Texas/Baylor under 144.5 (9:00pm - ESPN)
NC State +6.5 : PNC Arena knows how to create a very hostile environment for Duke and Carolina games. The Wolfpack fanbase lives for the opportunity to knock off their blue blood neighbors. While UNC has not had much trouble in Raleigh, the Blue Devils certainly have. Duke is only 9-8 straight up in games played at PNC Arena. NC State has won 3 out of the last 4 in this building, which includes an 84-60 beating a season ago. It will also be Senior Night for the Wolfpack. That may further intensify the environment from a normal matchup between these two. There is a full 3 points of homecourt included in my handicap tonight.
We are running out of games this season, but the ShotQuality regression model continues to tell us that this Duke offense may be a bit fraudulent.
NC State may also surprise you with their SQ defensive ratings. The Wolfpack are rated 41st overall in the SQ adjusted defensive rating. They are allowing 1.04 PPP on defense this season and SQ expects that to be even lower at 1.01. This is a quality unit. I also love that Keatts is giving more minutes to Middlebrooks in the post. He is making an impact.
ShotQuality expects the competing units above to be heading in opposite directions. I will step in and try to take advantage of this behind a hostile home environment. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: Duke 77 – NC State 73
Texas/Baylor under 144.5 : I love this under. When these two teams met on January 20th we saw a 148 total. This just squeaked over on a closing line of 146.5. We have seen this total get bet down to 144.5 after a 145.5 open. Why? ShotQuality may have the answer.
Shot Quality graded the previous game out as a 138 point total. This total equates to Texas scoring 1.23 SQ PPP and Baylor scoring 1.13 SQ PPP. This was well above Texas’ season average of 1.11. These two defenses also have what it takes to bring these numbers down. Baylor is rated as the 13th best defense in the country per the Shot Quality adjusted defensive rating, and Texas is 52nd. Baylor is only allowing 1.00 SQ PPP and Texas is at 1.03. I believe that the defenses will stand up today.
I am trusting in my thought process of this game backed by the SQ data that we have from the previous meeting. This is my Best Bet. Below is a preview of the SQ Value Finder. I was able to find the best number at MGM using this tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month to gain access to all of the amazing tools that ShotQuality has to offer!
Score Prediction: Baylor 72 – Texas 67
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!!
About the Author:
With years of experience and a remarkable track record, Three Point Sniper has proven to be a formidable College Basketball handicapper. He is a member of the U.S.B.W.A, known for his deep knowledge of rosters, especially mid-majors, and for his ability to use ShotQualityBets data. He provides readers with insightful and comprehensive coverage, ensuring they stay ahead of the game. He maintains his own picks blog https://threepointsniper.com when not writing for SQB.
Three Point Sniper holds a College Basketball betting record of 1098-888 (55%) since 2020 and a stellar 164-118 on best bets, he will be bringing his best shots to the range with "In The Crosshairs" all season long.
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