Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to the Sunday edition of picks and analysis. The first weekend of the tournament has absolutely delivered for us as we have been red hot.
We are off to a nice 2-1 start today thanks to those Marquette and Colorado prop winners. Let's keep that going with some more Max-a-Million best bets today.
Max-a-Million Best Bets:
Duke vs James Madison Under 147.5
Donovan Clingan Over 12.5 points (-115)
1. Duke vs James Madison Under 147.5
For our first play I am looking to take the under in this battle between Duke and the Dukes. SQ is projecting 151 points here but I actually think we go under for a couple reasons.
Both of these squads defend the three very well.
Duke is 53rd in 3pt Defense
JMU is 27th in 3pt Defense
Taking away the three is very important for an under. Especially since both offenses have been good beyond the arc, we like to see the defense with a slight edge here.
The key will be limiting James Madison in transition.
JMU is 64th in Offensive Transition Efficiency
JMU is 62nd in Offensive Transition Frequency
The Dukes love to get out and run on opponents but I don't expect them to see that success here against Duke.
Duke is 11th in Defensive Transition Efficiency
Duke is 33rd in Defensive Transition Frequency
Being 33rd means that Duke does NOT allow opponents to get out and run. Even if they do, Duke is really good at defending in transition.
If this game is played at Duke's tempo (236th) then I would expect both defenses to have the edge.
Duke is 46th in Half Court Defense
JMU is 49th in Half Court Defense
Duke is going to take away the transition and force JMU to earn buckets in the half court. JMU does have the ability to score in the half court as well but taking away the easy transition buckets is the key to this game staying under.
2. Donovan Clingan Over 12.5 points (-115)
I have attached the SQ score for this matchup but I am looking to take a player prop here instead of the spread or total. The Huskies should have a great matchup inside and that starts with Clingan.
As displayed above, Northwestern comes in ranking 309th at defending the rim per ShotQuality. I think the defensive rating inside is actually slighlty worse due to Matthew Nicholson being hurt. Nicholson was a 7 footer you could throw at Clingan but instead it will be all up to Luke Hunger which is bad news as he needs some help here.
I was really disappointed FAU didn't try to pound it inside to Vlad more but I don't expect to Hurley to make those same mistakes.
Clingan ranks in the 95th %tile in Rim Frequency and 89th %tile in Rim Efficiency. He should really be able to expose this Northwestern defense that is poor at defending the rim.
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. He did this successfully last season for us picking 56% and profiting 28.5u on over 300 plays! Currently he sits at 25-13 for March Madness so make sure to give him a follow on X!
Come join Max-a-Million as he previews Wednesday's WNBA slate with bets and analysis.
Join Max-a-Million as he breaks down the Saturday slate of WNBA games.
Join Max-a-Million as he gives his analysis and bets on this Friday WNBA matchup between the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury.
Max-a-Million breaks down the first game of the NBA finals with plays and analysis.
Come join Max-a-Million as he breaks down game one between Minnesota and Dallas with bets and analysis.
Come join Max-a-Million as he gives his thoughts and bets for game 3 of Mavericks and Thunder.
Come join Max-a-Million as he breaks down game 2 between the Knicks and Pacers.
Join Max-a-Million as he gives a breakdown of game 2 between the Celtics and the Heat with picks and analysis.
After a gritty play-in matchup against the reigning Eastern Conference champions, the Philadelphia 76ers are now faced with an even tougher challenge in the 2-seed New York Knicks.
Join Max-a-Million as he gives analysis and picks for Friday's play in tournament games.
Come join Max-a-Million as he breaks down the highly anticipated national championship game between Uconn and Purdue.
Join Max-a-Million as he previews the final four matchup between Purdue and North Carolina State.
Join Max-a-Million as he breaks down the Friday Night Sweet 16 games with bets and analysis.
Join Max in day 2 of the madness to get his best bets for the second wave of the round of 64.
Come join Max-a-Million for his best bets before selection Sunday as he has plays in the A10 and B10 championship game.
Conference tournaments are rolling on and Max-a-Million has some afternoon underdogs to bet on for this loaded Friday slate of basketball.
Come check out the ShotQuality preview of the B12 tournament along with a potential long shot that could make some noise in the tournament.
Come join Max-a-Million as he breaks down the Missouri Valley Championship and the SOCON tournament with picks and analysis.
Conference tournament season is officially upon us so come join Max-a-Million as he breaks down a pair of Horizon league bets using ShotQuality data.
March is officially here which means ShotQuality and Max-a-Million have you covered to help maximize the greatest month of the year.
March is right around the corner but do not wait that long to start tailing Max-a-Million's best bets. Max is using ShotQuality's advanced analytics to help bettors find an edge against the sportsbooks.
March is right around the corner but don't wait that long to start tailing Max-a-Million's best bets. Max is using ShotQuality's advanced analytics to help bettors find an edge against the sportsbooks.