Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to a Sunday edition of picks. For our last article, we got a 1-1 split on the Horizon as NKU was able to pull off the upset but IPFW fell short of covering.
Today, I've got 2 plays that I really like and both are featuring conference tournament games. Those who have been following know we have Indiana St. Under 158 in pocket and I can't recommend taking the under at the current line. However, there is still a play in the Arch Madness finale that I still like so let's dive in.
Max-a-Million Best Bets:
Indiana St. -2.5
Furman vs Samford Over 154
1. Indiana St. -2.5
This is a tough one to project as ShotQuality currently has this one projected as an 82-82 game which is well above the total. Conference tournament games are a different beast so I am more concerned with the matchup than the overall projection.
When it comes to this matchup, I love the style that Indiana St. plays.
Indiana St. is 1st in Rim & 3 Rate
ShotQuality Rim & 3 Rate measures how frequently a team gets shots at the rim and from deep. The most common example people have watched or are likely aware of is Alabama who ranks 4th in Rim & 3 Rate.
Indiana St. is 1st in the country at getting shots at both the rim and from deep. This is important because these are the most valuable shots in basketball. However, getting the opportunities is just half of the equation.
Indiana St. is 28th in Rim & 3 Efficiency
Not only do they get these shots often, but they are extremely efficient and capitalize on these shots. Shots at the rim and from three should be the difference and what gets Indiana St. the win and cover.
Indiana St. also plays into a phenomenal MVC championship trend.
Favorities are on a 11-0 SU & ATS run in the MVC Championship
I talked about this earlier on The Justin Perri Show but the MVC is a cream rises to the top conference. Play Indiana St. to get the win and cover up to -3.
2. Furman vs Samford Over 154
Similar to the previous game, this is a situational total that is going to be way off on the projections. However, this one adjusted a tad too much in my opinion.
This should be a great Rim & 3 matchup for both of these squads.
Furman is 18th in Rim & 3 Rate
Furman is 53rd in Rim & 3 Efficiency
Samford loves playing this style of what they call Bucky ball as well.
Samford is 11th in Rim & 3 Rate
Samford is 108th in Rim & 3 Efficiency
These are just great offensive metrics when betting an over. They get even better when you factor in how both of these squads defend the high value shots.
Furman is 327th in Rim & 3 Defense
Samford is 318th in Rim & 3 Defense
Both of these teams give up a ton of easy looks at both the rim and from three. Both of these teams are very efficient at the rim and from three. Keep it simple and let's take the discounted over!
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. He did this successfully last season for us picking 56% and profiting 28.5u on over 300 plays! Currently he sits at 55-55-1 and will hope to have a repeat of last season. Make sure to give him a follow on X!
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