Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to a Thursday edition of picks and analysis using ShotQuality data. Conference tournament time is officially upon us as the Horizon and Arch Madness tip off. I've got a pair of bets for Thursday and both are in the Horizon tournament.
I haven't had a best bet in a minute as I took a brief hiatus and waited for the right time to bring it back. I believe that time is right now so let's dive in.
Max-a-Million Best Bets:
Purdue Fort Wayne +4 (Best Bet)
Northern Kentucky +7.5
1. Purdue Fort Wayne +4 (Best Bet)
For our first Horizon underdog I will be backing IPFW as ShotQuality is projecting a narrow 76.6 to 74.9 victory for Oakland.
I am not too worried about the Mastodons going on the road here as they won at Oakland 98-77 early in the season. In fact, IPFW has been good on the road all year in Horizon play while Oakland has struggled to cover at home.
According to the ShotQuality Trend Finder:
IPFW is 6-4 ATS in Road Horizon Games
Oakland is 2-6-1 ATS in Home Horizon Games
The Horizon is one of the leagues that doesn't play their conference tournament on a neutral floor. This allows us to utilize one of my favorite SQ tools, the trend finder.
IPFW should have a significant edge at the rim.
IPFW is 21st in OFF Rim Frequency
Oakland is 337th in DEF Rim Efficiency
If IPFW can capitalize on a suspect interior defense, the Mastodons should be able to keep this close and maybe even pull off the upset. This tournament is always crazy so I like backing the underdogs here.
2. Northern Kentucky +7.5
Our next Horizon dog on the card is NKU as they are visiting Wright St. This one is going to be tough for the Norse as they dropped both games to Wright St. in the regular season.
This Wright St. offense has been electric and free flowing all season.
Wright St. is 22nd in Adj SQ OFF
Wright St. is 1st in SQ Shot Making
This offense has been elite all year, but this is tournament time and the pressure is on. That could lead to some turnovers and extra possessions for NKU.
NKU is 34th in Turnovers Forced
Although NKU dropped both games in the regular season, they both were only losses of 7 and 6 points. They were able to stay in those games due to some poor interior defense for Wright St.
Wright St. is 332nd in DEF Rim Efficiency
Northern Kentucky has only been in the Horizon for 8 years and they have won the entire thing 3 times. This is a team that always competes in this tournament so let's back the Norse here and root for some Horizon underdogs.
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. He did this successfully last season for us picking 56% and profiting 28.5u on over 300 plays! Currently he sits at 54-54-1 and will hope to have a repeat of last season. Make sure to give him a follow on X!
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