The Phillips 66 Big 12 tournament kicks off tomorrow and this should be one of the most entertaining conference tournaments we have remaining. The B12 newcomer has been dominant getting the outright regular season title and 1 seed. Will they be able to add B12 tournament champs to their resume in their inaugural season as well? Let's dive into the matchups here and look to bet some futures using ShotQuality data.

Big 12 ShotQuality Rankings

It should come to no surprise that Houston sits atop the SQ rankings in the B12. They get so much credit for being a stellar defense (2nd in Adjusted SQ DEF) but their offense doesn't get nearly the glamour it should (6th in Adjusted SQ OFF).

The most surprising of these rankings is BYU coming in 2nd amongst B12 teams. The reason being is that Mark Pope really runs an efficient offense.

• BYU is 3rd in Rim Efficiency

• BYU is 3rd in Offensive Spacing

• BYU is 4th in Good Passing

• BYU is 3rd in 3pt Frequency

This style of basketball is high risk high reward as they live and die by the three. It creates the potential to beat a team like Houston but can they string it together for 2 games prior to even get to that potential matchup?

Houston's Half of the Bracket

The top half of the bracket is clearly Houston's to lose and they should have an easy path to the championship. The only team that Houston lost to in this half of the bracket, was a road game at TCU.

If we get a potential rematch there, Houston should get their revenge. Houston may have lost 68-67 but SQ projected a Cougar win of 76-74.

All the other teams in this half of the bracket, Houston was able to defeat. Houston beats you so many different ways but the main reason is their ability to create extra possessions.

• Houston is 3rd in Offensive Rebounding

• Houston is 3rd in Defensive Turnovers Forced

• Houston is 8th in Offensive Turnover Rate

Their turnover margin is elite and they just possess the ball more than their opponents which is so much easier said than done. I think this path is fairly easy to the championship as a matchup with 4 seed Texas Tech or 5 seed BYU shouldn't be too daunting of a task.

The only concern would be the motivation as Houston has a 1 seed on lock. However, Kelvin Sampson doesn't give me the impression that this team will take any game lightly. The more intriguing part of this bracket is the bottom half.

Houston's Potential Championship Date

Saying this part of the bracket is wide open is a massive understatement. Especially when you consider that Kansas is a 6 seed! If you are looking to take a team in this region, you have to do a process of elimination.

That process starts with the Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas currently has bigger fish to fry as Hunter Dickinson went out with a shoulder injury against Houston. When you factor in that Kevin McCullar has been banged up all year, this team has different priorities. Bill Self should be a big picture guy here and focus on getting healthy for the NCAA Tournament.

It gets even harder now to eliminate teams as 4 of the top 6 teams per ShotQuality, are in this bottom half of the bracket. Let's take a look at the odds then and see if there is any value on those tightly contested teams.

The Betting Odds

The first team that stands out is Baylor at +750. The Bears have the talent to give Houston a game in the Championship.

• Baylor is 25th in SQ Shot Making

SQ Shot Making measures a team's skill and ability to make a shot regardless of the defensive contest. This is crucial when playing an elite team like Houston who is always contesting shots.

• Baylor is 16th in Free Throw Rate

Houston plays aggressive defense but it often leads to lots of fouls. Baylor draws contact frequently and could get some Houston defenders in foul trouble. Baylor also takes advantage of those opportunities shooting 74% at the line.

• Baylor is 26th in Rim & 3 SQ PPP

Rim & 3 SQ PPP measures a team's efficiency at the rim and from three. These are high value shots so I like a team that can hit both from deep and at the rim. Specifically, they excel at shooting from beyond as they are 40% from deep which ranks 4th in the nation.

Potential Longshot

I sprinkled Cincinnati at 500-1 earlier in the week but I think it is still worth a small bet at 200-1. Did I make this bet because I actually think they will win? Of course not, but if the path is there it could create hedging opportunities.

First is West Virginia who they just throttled by a score of 92-56. They also were projected to win the SQ score 74-50 so I like to see that.

The next game would be against a depleted Kansas team like I mentioned earlier. Also, UC went into Phog Allen and lost 69-74 but was actually projected to win 68-66 per SQ. Kansas was full strength in that game so I think UC could be live there.

Next up would be Baylor and the Bearcats gave them a game earlier this year losing a close one 59-62. The ShotQuality score was also a slight Baylor win by a score of 62-60. Like I said this ticket is a longshot but the path is there!

Now this is when I would start hedging. The semifinal would likely be a matchup with Iowa St. but regardless the next two games would create hedging opportunities to monetize that 200-1 ticket.

Prediction

I've got Houston vs Baylor in the B12 Championship which would be a great scenario for a +750 ticket to lay some off. If Baylor is going to make it to the championship, it will be off some hot shooting so I like that this is a multiple day event. Hopefully some momentum leads to the upset but if not I will be laying some off on Houston.