Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires both old and new. The tournament totally delivered as it always does as Jack Gohlke and the Golden Grizzlies stole the hearts of America (Sorry BBN).
The tournament is never kind to favorites and I've got my eyes on another dog that I think will pull off the upset so let's dive in.
Max-a-Million Best Bets:
James Madison +5.5 (Best Bet)
Utah St. vs TCU Over 151 (Best Bet)
1. James Madison +5.5 (Best Bet)
I am tagging both of the plays today with best bet status which means I will be placing two units on those.
This is probably one of the most popular underdogs but not all trendy dogs are created equal so I don't care. I was one of the few on Gonzaga rather than the trendy McNeese play. However, popular dog Samford ended up pulling off the cover as well so like I said, not all trendy dogs are created equal.
ShotQuality is projecting a very narrow win here for the Badgers so we like to see that for our underdog ticket. James Madison should be very comfortable with the flow of this game.
JMU is 4th in OFF P&R Frequency
WISC is 3rd in DEF P&R Frequency
James Madison runs a lot of pick and roll plays and that is exactly what the Wisconsin defense frequently allows. This tells me the offensive sets should be pretty under control. I am not expecting the Wisconsin defense to fluster JMU at all despite being the lesser opponent here.
The key to this game will be from beyond the arc. Wisconsin is allowing opponents to shoot 37% (345th) from beyond the arc this year but it is because of bad defense or bad luck?
ShotQuality has expected Wisconsin to do slightly better but still allowing opponents to shoot 35% from deep. So it truly is just bad defense from the Badgers!
WISC is 306th in 3pt SQ DEF
WISC is 319th in Open 3 Rate Allowed
This James Madison team is one of the better shooting teams in the country from deep. The Dukes shoot 36.4% which ranks 39th in the country. If JMU can capitalize on those opportunities, then they can pull off the upset or at least cover our number.
2. Utah St. vs TCU Over 151 (Best Bet)
I've got another best bet coming right at you as I am playing the over in this matchup between first year guy Danny Sprinkle and veteran Jamie Dixon.
This matchup as the potential to be a track meet.
TCU is 63rd in Tempo
Utah St. is 107th in Tempo
Neither team is scared to get up and down the floor, especially when you factor in how efficient they are in transition.
TCU is 13th in Transition Efficiency
Utah St. is 3rd in Transition Efficiency
The key to both of these offenses is getting an easy look early before the defense is set. Lucky for us, both defense aren't good at defending in the transition!
TCU is 186th in Transition Defense
Utah St. is 226th in Transition Defense
I think this game has all the makings for an exciting up and down game so I really like the over here. Even when they do have to settle in the half court, I am still expecting quality looks.
TCU is 58th in SQ Shot Selection
Utah St. is 37th in SQ Shot Selection
One of my favorite parts about ShotQuality is the shot selection metric. This is something you won't find in the box score and it is impossible to watch every game to decide for yourself who takes quality shots. Let SQ do the hard work and we can hopefully reap the benefits here with an over.
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. He did this successfully last season for us picking 56% and profiting 28.5u on over 300 plays! Currently he sits at 9-4 for March Madness so make sure to give him a follow on X!
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