The ShotQualityBets Model is projecting a total of 139.1 points for this regular season finale matchup in the Missouri Valley Conference between Missouri State and Illinois Chicago. This gives us a strong play on the Under at 146.5 on teams that SQ sees as likely to regress offensively. Both of these MVC teams are scoring 0.05 points above expectation on a per possession basis this season. That means in a standard 70 possession game, they are going over the ShotQuality expected point total by 3.5 points on average. Both sides are seeing this type of action, so seeing a SQ projection 7 points lower than the line does make sense, though its likely coincidence. Either way, we have a low open three rate on both sides of the floor, bad free throw rates from UIC, as well as good defensive rebounding with bad offensive rebounding on both sides as well. Look for plenty of single-opportunity possessions, and for this MVC regular season finale match to come to a close with a whimper rather than a bang.
👀 See the full matchup preview for Missouri St vs UIC here.
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