The NBA finals are upon us as two teams remain amongst the association. The Boston Celtics, who are heavily favored to win the championship, are hosting the Mavericks to start this series. Let's first take a look at the paths that each of these teams has had to get here.

Boston Celtics Path

• 4-1 vs Heat (5-0 SQ)

• 4-1 vs Cavs (4-1 SQ)

• 4-0 vs Pacers (3-1 SQ)

The Celtics have had a considerably easier path facing off against the Heat (21st Adj SQ), Cavaliers (13th Adj SQ), and Pacers (6th Adj SQ). Even more so when you consider that each of those teams was without their star player for one or more games.

Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell, and Tyreese Haliburton all were greatly missed as it takes everyone to beat this dominant Celtics team. Credit to Boston though as over this stretch of games they are 12-2 while also sustaining a ShotQuality record of 12-2. The Mavericks actual record compared to their SQ record tells a different story.

Dallas Mavericks Path

• 4-2 vs Clippers (5-1 SQ)

• 4-2 vs Thunder (2-4 SQ)

• 4-1 vs Twolves (1-3 SQ)

The biggest difference here is that ShotQuality has projected the Mavs to be losing a lot of games as portrayed in paratheses above. The main question I have is why are they overperforming?

I believe they are overperforming not because of luck, but rather elite shot makers.

• Luka is 86th %ile in SQ Shot Making

• Kyrie is 99th %ile in SQ Shot Making

One of the main differences between College and the NBA is the SQ Shot Making stat. In college their is less talent thus getting QUALITY shots is what helps drives a team's success. On the contrary, shot MAKING is more important in the NBA rather than shot selection.

Don't get me wrong, shot selection is still important but when you have guys like Luka and Kyrie it doesn't matter as much as their pure talent negates the defensive pressure.

Comparing this to the Celtics top players shot making ability.

• Tatum is 71st %ile in SQ Shot Making

• Brown is 71st %ile in SQ Shot Making

The two leaders for the Celtics are both good shot makers but not as elite as what the Mavericks have. If this game comes down to late 4th Quarter, you have to give the edge to Luka and Kyrie to get the job done.

Three Point Barrage

Both of these teams love to let it fly from beyond the arc.

• Boston is 1st in 3pt Frequency

• Dallas is 2nd in 3pt Frequency

It is very intriguing that we get to see the two teams that shoot it most frequently from deep facing off. It gets even more intriguing when you consider the three point defense in this matchup.

• Boston is 28th in 3pt Defense

• Dallas is 20th in 3pt Defense

Neither team really excels at defending beyond the arc, specifically the Celtics are allowing high quality three point attempts. The difficulty is narrowing it down to which three point props to take.

Derrick White SQ Profile

I think Derrick White is the player to back here in game one. Over the last 10 games, Derrick White has been excelling. Derrick White over the last 10 games per the graphic above:

• White Averages 16.2 Actual Points

• White Averages 16.2 SQ Points

I like seeing that his actual production has been correlated to his ShotQuality expected production, especially when the line currently sits at 14.5 points.

However, I think the better play is taking Derrick White over 2.5 threes made. In 8 home games this playoff, White is averaging 3.8 made threes on 8.4 attempts.

Also, in each of the three home game ones, White has gone over this number making 4, 7, and 3 shots from beyond the arc. For those reasons, I am making this one the Max-a-Million best bet.

Max-a-Million Best Bet:

• Derrick White Over 2.5 3PM (-130)

I would also recommend a small position on White Over 3.5 3PM at +210. As for the series, I think it will come down to who can execute late game. For that reason, I am backing Luka and Kyrie to get the job done with that elite shot making I discussed earlier.

NBA Finals Series Winner:

• Mavericks +190 to win Title

Neither team has a rest edge as both teams have had plenty of time off. It certainly helps the Celtics more to try and get Porzingis ready but I think trying to plug him in at a not 100% in game 1 could mess up some rhythm so I'm not too concerned about him much until I see reason to be concerned.

Since I like them to win the series, I will be backing them to cover the spread in game one.

Bet Against the Spread:

• Mavericks +6.5

The Celtics are undoubtably the better team but I can't ignore that they truly haven't been tested yet. I have been burned before betting this Celtics team and have referred to them as the "worst best team ever." They are crazy efficient and elite but I just can't look at them the same as other all time great teams. If the Celtics want to win they are going have to jump on them early because if it comes down to late game action, I am taking Luka and Kyrie all day.

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About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give him a follow on X!