Max-a-Million Best Bets: June 19th
2024-06-18 Max Hofmeyer

Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to another edition of WNBA best bets and analysis. We are coming off a Saturday article where we went 2-0 and will be looking to repeat that.

For Wednesday's games I've got two bets and hopefully the dogs are barking because we will be taking the points in both of our games.

Max-a-Million Best Bets:

  1. Mystics +4.5 (-108)

  2. Storm +5.5 (-110)


1. Mystics +4.5

For our first dog, we will be taking the Mystics who are traveling to play Caitlin Clark and the Fever. The Mystics started the season slow losing their first TWELVE games of the season. However, ShotQuality disagreed with that because based on the quality of shots taken, the Mystics were expected to start a much more respectable 6-6.

Despite the slow start, we are starting to see that progression ShotQuality expected as the Mystics have won 2 games in a row. During that 0-12 stretch, the Fever were one of the teams that reaped the benefits of some bad Mystics variance.

Portrayed above is the ShotQuality comparison between the actual and SQ expected score. For those unaware, ShotQuality assigns a point value to each shot and then computes a final SQ score.

In the first meeting between these teams, the Fever won a close battle 85-83. However, the ShotQuality score showed a different story having the Mystics as the winner of a SQ score of 76-71.

I am taking the inflated line here and expecting the Mystics to keep this one close again and possibly win the game outright.


2. Storm +5.5

For our final play, I am taking the Seattle Storm who are going on the road to play a struggling Aces team. Las Vegas, who was the WNBA favorite to win the title, has started the season slow as they are 6-6 straight up with an abysmal 3-9 ATS record.

ShotQuality is in full agreement of the poor ATS numbers as SQ has projected the Aces to be 4-8 ATS which still isn't good. This is important because it tells us that these results aren't due to bad variance.

I think the market is still off on this Aces team and now they get a very respectable opponent. The Storm are ranked 4th in the Adjusted SQ Standings and are 9-5 ATS this season.

Specifically, Seattle ranks 2nd in Adjusted SQ Defense which should help them keep this game close so take the points here with the Storm.

Best of luck to everyone tailing, let's get another 2-0 card!


About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give him a follow on X!

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