Welcome back fellow Max-a-Millionaires to a Saturday edition of picks and analysis. This series between the Thunder and Mavericks is one I have watched closely thus far as we have had our live BetCast for both of their first two games. For that reason I want to target this game three as I start to get a read on the game.
This series should continue to be a great one and it should not come to a surprise to anyone as ShotQuality has these teams so evenly matched. The Mavericks rank 10th in the Adjusted SQ Standings with the Thunder just one spot behind at 11th. No reason this great action shouldn't continue here for game 3 so let's dive in!
Game 1 Actual vs SQ Score
As a reminder, the first column is the actual score and the next column is the SQ score. This is important because the SQ score will assign a point value to each shot depending on the quality of the shot and who is taking it.
Although SQ agreed with the Thunder winning game 1, we had this game projected to be much higher scoring. The actual total was 212 with an SQ projection of 237! The question is would they positively regress in game 2?
Game 2 Actual vs SQ Score
Similar to game 1, the SQ result agreed with the team that actually won but this time it was the Mavericks who were victorious. The shooting did positively regress here as they scored 229 points compared to just 212 in game 1. This was much more on par with the SQ projection of 234.
Both of these SQ scores were very high in games 1 and 2 but the question is it sustainable? I think it is for a couple reasons.
Pace of Play
These teams are no strangers to pace.
Mavs are 9th in Tempo
Thunder are 7th in Tempo
The pace of play in these games have helped generate some high ShotQuality scores. As you already know, more pace means more shots which means more points.
Poor Defensive Shot Selection
ShotQuality Defensive Shot Selection measures how effective a defense is at contesting shots.
Mavs are 20th in Defensive Shot Selection
Thunder are 12th in Defensive Shot Selection
Neither one of these teams have excelled at contesting opponent shots. Between that and the pace of play, I am not surprised to see some high SQ scores. Let's try and take advantage of this with a bet.
BET: 1H Over 112.5 (-110 on DK)
The reason I am targeting the 1H rather than the game is because both of these teams have tightened up the defense in the 2H. The first two games had 115 and 130 points in the first half respectively. If we get some offensive positive regression as well, they should be able to go over this total.
OKC SQ Profile
As you can see on the Thunder's ShotQuality profile, their rebounding is abysmally marked in red as they rank 29th. One man who has been able to exploit this edge has been Daniel Gafford.
Gafford is Averaging 25 PRA This Series
This has been a good matchup for him as he saw 27 minutes in both games 1 and 2. He's taken advantage of his opportunities and I expect that to continue here. They bumped up his line a little to 20.5 from 19.5 but I don't think this is enough of an adjustment.
BET: Gafford Over 20.5 P+R+A (-106 on CZR)
These round out my two favorite plays for game 3. Best of luck to anyone tailing!
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give him a follow on X!
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