Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to another edition of NBA best bets. Just one game on the NBA playoff card today but I've got some thoughts along with a bet on the spread as well.
If you are looking for some additional content make sure to join the ShotQuality Discord to get additional plays and early access to any bets before the lines move. I currently have a player prop in there now if you are interested. Let's first take a look at the home team in this one.
Knicks SQ Profile
The first thing that stands out about this team has been their dominance on the offensive glass.
Knicks are 2nd in OREB%
They are lead by guys like Josh Hart who had 4 offensive rebounds in game 1 and helped generate extra opportunities to score. Surprisingly, the Knicks only won the offensive rebound battle by 1 as they had 8 and the Pacers grabbed 7 offensive boards.
Although they clean up the offensive boards well, they have struggled defensively to rebound.
Knicks are 24th in DREB%
The differential between offensive and defensive rebounding was not one that I would expect, especially a gap this large. This team clearly has made it a point of emphasis to crash the offensive glass. The byproduct of this decision is a lesser emphasis on getting back on defense.
Knicks rank 22nd in Transition Defense
Crashing the offensive glass hinders them from being able to get back and set up on defense. The Pacers could exploit that when you dive into their profile and the style that they want to play.
Pacers SQ Profile
If the Knicks aren't going to get back on defense, the Pacers really have a chance to take advantage.
Pacers rank 3rd in Pace
Pacers rank 1st in Transition Efficiency
The Pacers need to utilize the style of play that worked all regular season and that is getting out in transition. They did this for 3 quarters in game 1 and had the Knicks on the ropes but got tight in the 4th quarter.
Ignoring the result of last game, I think the Pacers really took advantage of this style and will continue to do so in game 2. For that reason I am backing the Pacers and taking the points. I took some moneyline as well because I think we head back to Indy with a 1-1 split in the series.
Bet: Pacers +5 (-112 on DK)
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give him a follow on X!
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