The ShotQualityBets Model is projecting this Big 12 clash at 142.8 points, a strong margin on the Under 152 line for a big game. Texas Tech’s defense allows the 43rd fewest shots at the rim, and is expected to be performing better than actual in both 3PT% allowed (1.8% difference) and at the rim FG% allowed (2.0% difference). They hold a 18-10 OU record, but SQ expects a 15-13, which, along with the regression data, could indicate that some unlucky defensive performances have lead to this inflated line. Both teams are in the top 75 of FT Rate allowed and WVU’s offense leaves plenty to be desired. The Mountaineers are 12th in the Big 12 play in Half Court SQPPP and 13th in Transition SQPPP. They were having trouble shooting early in the year but in conference play, WVU is over performing from 3PT range, shooting 37% against B12 opponents when SQ expects a paltry 32% based on the quality of shots generated. Their shot making is weak, they don’t generate enough open threes and they happen to rebound defensively very well. Should all add up to a good under. Let’s get back on track!
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