NCAA Tournament Record 25-19 (2023: 27-10)

Elite 8 Card:

Saturday:

Illinois +9 (6:09pm – TBS)

Alabama 1H -1.5 (8:49pm – TBS)

Sunday:

Tennessee +3.5 (2:20pm – CBS)

Duke 1H -3.5 & -6.5 (5:05pm – CBS)

Illinois +9 : I cannot believe I am standing in front of the UConn freight train. However, this number is just too high. Getting 9 points with the team that has the best player in the tournament to this point is something that I cannot pass up. Brad Underwood knows where his bread is buttered. It is with Terrence Shannon Jr.

https://x.com/kenpomeroy/status/1773592735909355584?s=20

This usage rate is something that you want to see when backing a team that depends so highly on one player for their success. There is not a scenario where the Illini fall tonight without Shannon Jr. having a say in it.

I spoke about it previously on my personal blog, but there is just not enough people talking about how well Illinois is defending. Their performance against Iowa State moved them from 55th to 51^st in the SQ adjDEF rating. This is a unit that has continued to improve as the year has progressed and I like the way the Illini are “bringing the fight” to their opponents in the tournament. Illinois is also on a 7 game SQ score winning streak. That is a true sign of consistency and great play on both ends of the court.

The transition battle will be an interesting one tonight. That is one of the few weaknesses that you will find in the UConn resume on ShotQuality. The Huskies are 292^nd in the country in SQ PPP in transition (and only 189^th defensively). Illinois ranks 14^th in this metric due to the explosive ability of Shannon to get downhill. This could be a metric that keeps Illinois within the number for us.

This UConn tax is high. Too high in my opinion. The ShotQuality model makes this a -7.5 spread. I personally have it at -6.5. I was able to find the best number on Illinois via the ShotQuality Value Finder. Here is a preview of it below:

Score Prediction: UConn 80 – Illinois 74

Alabama 1H -1.5 : Clemson has been so good to us recently. We are 3-0 ATS with the Tigers in this year’s tournament. I was alone on Clemson Island for a while and now many have joined us. I have some bad news though. I may be wading in the water just off of the island tonight.

Many people are pointing to Clemson’s win at Coleman Coliseum this year as a reason why the Tigers can continue to roll to the Final Four. There are many things on paper from this tournament that could lead you to believe that would be the case. What if I told you Alabama had one of the best offensive performances of the season in that meeting with Clemson?

The Tide recorded 1.33 SQ PPP in that game. That is a performance in the 99^th percentile for this season. My eye tells me that Alabama is a bad matchup for Clemson and the ShotQuality data confirmed it for me.

We are attacking the 1H angle here for two reasons. The first reason is that Alabama leads the country in 1H scoring at 42.8 ppg. I believe that the Tide come out hot and blow through the regression that is coming for Clemson on defending the three-point line in this tournament. Opponents are only shooting 14/75 from distance against the Tigers. The second reason is I believe that Brad Brownell has been the best coach in this tournament. I can see a world where he rights the ship at the half and Clemson makes a fight of this in the 2H by strategically attacking the poor defense of the Tide. Be ready at the half. This may be a scenario where we are on Alabama in the 1H and then on Clemson in the 2H via a live play. You can find this 1H number at FanDuel. This is my Saturday Best Bet.

Score Prediction: 1H Alabama 41 – Clemson 35

Tennessee +3.5 : You know the move. We picked Tennessee to win it all when the bracket was announced, and we aren’t stopping now.

This is another regular season rematch in the Elite 8. We are seeing three of those this year. Pretty annoying, but that is how the cookie crumbled. Purdue was able to defeat Tennessee at the free throw line in that game. It was as simple as that. The Boilermakers shot 48 (!!!) free throws in route to a 4-point victory. Aidoo and Awaka (who was playing injured) only registered a combined 25 minutes in that game due to foul trouble from the ridiculous whistle. We *should* see a better game called tomorrow.

Tennessee was able to defend the Boilermakers extremely well when the whistle wasn’t being blown. The Vols continued this great play for the entirety of the 23/24 season. This Tennessee defense is scary good & not enough people are talking about it. The Vols are 3^rd in the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency rating and 8^th in the ShotQuality adfDEF rating. It is a major reason why I picked this team to win it all. How about the performance of Jahmai Mashack last night?! He got the start and extended minutes due to Vescovi being scratched with the flu. He put the clamps on Trey Alexander and that is a big reason why Tennessee was able to go on their monster 2H run. I believe the perimeter defense of Tennessee is going to be a massive problem for Purdue. The Boilermaker guards struggle when teams apply pressure on the ball and they are going to see that for 40 minutes tonight. I also think Aidoo and Awaka have a big night guarding Edey following their great performance against Kalkbrenner. They have the strength and physicality to keep Edey further away from the basket than what he has seen in this tournament.

The Vols have extended their SQ Score winning streak to 18 games. That is the longest streak in the country by a wide margin. The next closest is Illinois at 7. Tennessee gets their revenge on Purdue and wins outright here to go to the Final Four. This is my first Best Bet of Sunday. Once again, Cue Rocky Top.

Score Prediction: Tennessee 75 – Purdue 73

Duke 1H -3.5 & -6.5 : I am honestly stunned that we still have NC State in our tournament. This team is consistently not playing great basketball and getting away with it. The Wolfpack are 1-4 in the ShotQuality score in their last 5 games. The luck runs out on Sunday.

Let’s call the Marquette win what it was. Extreme variance luck. Marquette found an open look on virtually every possession they had against NC State. They just couldn’t knock down a shot.

https://x.com/Sam_Federman/status/1773893980742090866?s=20

NC State won by a score of 67-58. ShotQuality had this as an 81-65 Marquette win in the updated number posted on the site today. That is an extreme variance and I believe it hits them in the mouth in a big way on Sunday. Duke has the ability to get a lot of open looks against this defense as well. Below are some of their ShotQuality metrics:

• 3^rd – Efficient 3PT Shooting

• 6^th – High Spacing on Offense

• 40^th – Good Passing

This game is going to be a walk in the park for Duke after facing a team like Houston. The Wolfpack look gassed from their extended magical run as well. They tried to let Marquette back in the game late and the Golden Eagles just couldn’t answer the bell. I believe Duke does in a big way tomorrow. The Blue Devil defense and ability to get open looks on offense will extend this game out early. I will be taking Duke in the 1H and for the full game. These are both Best Bets as well. (I don’t normally do this. I just love the Sunday slate so much)

Score Prediction: Duke 77 – NC State 65 (1H: 37 – 28)

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!!

About the Author:

With years of experience and a remarkable track record, Three Point Sniper has proven to be a formidable College Basketball handicapper. He is a member of the U.S.B.W.A, known for his deep knowledge of rosters, especially mid-majors, and for his ability to use ShotQualityBets data. He provides readers with insightful and comprehensive coverage, ensuring they stay ahead of the game. He maintains his own picks blog https://threepointsniper.com when not writing for SQB.

Three Point Sniper holds a College Basketball betting record of 1147-935 (55%) since 2020 and a stellar 178-128 on best bets, he will be bringing his best shots to the range with "In The Crosshairs" all season long.