Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to a Friday night edition of sweet 16 picks and analysis. The tournament has been kind to us thus far but yesterday was a little disappointing as props went 0-2 for us. Let's dive into the picks and look to bounce back and start the weekend right.
Max-a-Million Best Bets:
Houston -4 (-112)*
Dalton Knecht Over 21.5 points (-110)*
*Both of these are 2u Best Bets
1. Houston -4 (-112)
Houston and Duke is the matchup I am looking forward to most tonight and SQ is projecting about a 5 point win for the Cougs. This matchup should be a walk in the park compared to their last battle with Texas A&M.
Houston shouldn't have to deal with 4 of their 5 starters fouling out like the A&M game.
Texas A&M is 38th in OFF Foul Rate
Duke is 136th in OFF Foul Rate
The Blue Devils won't be putting their head down and trying to draw contact nearly as much as A&M did. I respect Ryan Elvin coming off the bench and hitting a clutch free throw in OT, but I really don't want to see him on the court the remainder of this tournament unless it is with a Houston 20+ point lead.
Houston is elite at creating extra possessions which has helped them win so many games this season.
Houston is 3rd in TO Forced
Houston is 11th in OFF Reb Rate
The Cougars have had success all year winning the battle on the boards and the turnover battle. Texas A&M gave them fits because the Aggies are 1st in Offensive Rebound Rate.
I fully expect Houston to win both of these battles as the Blue Devils are pretty mediocre in both categories.
Duke is 161st in TO Forced
Duke is 78th in OFF Reb Rate
Turnovers and rebounds will be the keys to victory for Houston in this one. After watching UNC bully Duke twice in the regular season, I expect Houston to handle Duke here. Jay Bilas mentioned on that broadcast that in both those games, they weren't 50-50 balls but more like 60-40 balls for UNC. I'm thinking it is more 70-30 balls for Houston tonight because this team is hell of lot tougher than UNC.
2. Dalton Knecht Over 21.5 points (-110)
For the last game of the night, I've got a player prop I really like here. SQ is projecting this one to be a close battle with Tennessee winning 74-73 but I think the better play is buying low on Knecht who has been underperforming.
As you can see in his last 5 games he is averaging 24 points but ShotQuality has actually projected him to be averaging 26.3 points. Specifically that last game against Texas, he struggled but still managed to score 18 points with an SQ projection of 26 points.
The matchup should play right into his hands here against a drop coverage Creighton defense. Creighton's defense gives up the 5th most frequent midrange jumpers and is ranked 187th in defending those attempts.
Per the SQ player profile above.
Knecht is 91st %tile Midrange Efficiency
Knecht is 86th %tile Midrange Frequency
Creighton could run into some serious problems if they run their normal drop coverage which I expect. Think back to February 25th when Creighton played St. John's and lost 80-66 at MSG. Daniss Jenkins made 11 two pointers on 16 attempts as they were just giving him the midrange all day. If Knecht wants it, the volume and opportunities will be there and I don't see why he doesn't take it.
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. He did this successfully last season for us picking 56% and profiting 28.5u on over 300 plays! Currently he sits at 25-13 for March Madness so make sure to give him a follow on X!
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