In The Crosshairs Record: 55-46

2/26 Card:

Lamar +10 (8:00pm ET – ESPN+)

UNCW/Campbell under 144 (8:30pm – CBSSN)

Baylor +3 (9:00pm – ESPN)

Lamar +10 : Lamar will be a scrappy underdog tonight in my opinion. They went toe-to-toe with the Cowboys on the road for the first 25 minutes of their meeting back in January. The Cardinals ultimately faded away, but I believe their 2H issue has a strong chance of being corrected tonight. The Cowboys won this game by having a 14 point edge at the free throw line. That is a liability for the Cardinals, no doubt .. but McNeese have also shown vulnerability in putting their opponents at the line this season. The Cowboys rank 259^th in the country in opponent percentage of points from free throws. I expect the free throws to be much more balanced tonight in Beaumont.

Lamar was also able to take advantage of the McNeese perimeter defense. The Cowboys rank dead last in the country in opponent three point attempt rate at 48% per Shot Quality. Lamar is a pretty good three point shooting team at 35.7% on the year with 208 makes. The Cardinals went 12-29 from three in the first game and I think they have another opportunity to crack double digit makes again tonight.

I feel comfortable getting the 10 here. I would play this to +9.

Score Prediction: McNeese 77 – Lamar 70

UNCW/Campbell under 144 : UNCW averages 80.4 points per game. Both teams are allowing at least 70 points per game. There were 151 points in the first meeting. Surely this is an over play right? Not so fast my friend.

This is a pace play. UNCW ranks 289^th in possessions per game and Campbell is even further behind them at 301^st. The first meeting between these two teams went over simply do to abnormal elite shot making. The Shot Quality score was only 139 points. The Seahawks made 15 three pointers (!!!) in this game. This was a season high and well above their 8.6 threes made per game average. Campbell also made 9 threes and they rank 242^nd in the country in three pointers made per game.

I am trusting the pace and the shooting regression from the first meeting. This bet is Shot Quality model approved at a 141.1 point predicted final. This is my Best Bet.

Score Prediction: UNCW 74 – Campbell 64

Baylor +3 : The unranked home favorite vs ranked teams success has been well documented in the industry over the last few months. The unranked teams have had unparalleled success from seasons before. However, I simply must go against that trend tonight. The Baylor Bears getting 3 points here is a bit egregious to me.

Baylor has lost 3 out of their last 5 games and that is a major reason why they are a candidate to be an underdog in this type of scenario. Are we really that worried about where these three losses occurred? At Allen Fieldhouse, At Provo, and then an OT loss over the weekend at home to arguably the best team in the country. I am not worried by any of these results.

The free throw rate and offensive rebounding for Baylor will be the X-Factor today. The Bears are 23^rd in the country in getting to the line per Shot Quality. TCU struggles in that department and rank 221^st in opponent points per game from the free throw line. The Horned Frogs also rank 113th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage. The Bears rank 23^rd in offensive rebounding rate per Shot Quality. These are two major factors in my handicap tonight.

This is a nice matchup for Baylor. I believe that they get revenge on the previous meeting from earlier in the year. This has touched 3 at some places and I would definitely try to grab one of those if you can. I also endorse +2.5 if that is all you can grab. You don’t need to lay the juice of buying the hook. Baylor wins a close one.

Score Prediction: Baylor 78 – TCU 76

Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!!

About the Author:

With years of experience and a remarkable track record, Three Point Sniper has proven to be a formidable College Basketball handicapper. He is a member of the U.S.B.W.A, known for his deep knowledge of rosters, especially mid-majors, and for his ability to use ShotQualityBets data. He provides readers with insightful and comprehensive coverage, ensuring they stay ahead of the game. He maintains his own picks blog https://threepointsniper.com when not writing for SQB.

Three Point Sniper holds a College Basketball betting record of 1079-874 (55%) since 2020 and a stellar 160-116 on best bets, he will be bringing his best shots to the range with "In The Crosshairs" all season long.