Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires as we are off a 1-1 performance on yesterday's article. However, the one bet we did cash was a best bet so we can live with that split.
From a viewing standpoint, the game was very disappointing so I am hoping tonight's WNBA slate is more exciting. Of the four games tonight, I am looking to the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury for a best bet.
Minnesota Lynx Defense
The Lynx have had great success this season on the defensive end.
Lynx are 4th in Adj SQ Defense
Lynx are 2nd in Defensive Shot Selection
Specifically, they have excelled at contesting shots. ShotQuality Defensive Shot Selection measures a defenses ability to contest and defend an opponents shot. This stat ignores the actual result of the shot because even if the opponent makes a tough shot, we would expect in the long term that continued pressured shots would result in misses. Minnesota ranks 2nd in contesting opponent shots.
Phoenix Mercury Defense
The Mercury's defense tells a much different story than the Lynx.
Mercury are 11th in Adj SQ Defense
Mercury are 11th in Defensive Shot Selection
Unlike the Lynx, the Mercury have really struggled on the defensive end this season. However, they do get an easier matchup here in this one against a poor offense.
Lynx are 9th in Adj SQ Offense
Lynx are 12th in Adj Shot Selection
Earlier we talked about defensive shot selection, the stat is the same for offense but just a different perspective. The Lynx are dead last when it comes to offensive shot selection meaning they take a lot of ill advised shots. This should help take some pressure off a bad Phoenix defense.
Actual vs SQ O/U
One of the interesting dynamics about ShotQuality is comparing actual results to SQ results. ShotQuality results assign a point value to each shot based on a number of factors like player, shot type, shot selection, etc. Those results then total out a final score and then you can compare that what actually happened.
Both of these teams have been average this year towards the under as portrayed above.
Lynx are 4-4-1 to the Over
Mercury are 4-6 to the Over
Although they are an average 8-10-1 combined to the over, the ShotQuality scores tell a different story.
Lynx SQ O/U is 2-7
Mercury SQ O/U is 2-8
That means ShotQuality would have expected these teams to be a combined 15-4 to the under! Between this stat and the defensive matchups, I will be riding with the under as my best bet.
Max-a-Million Best Bet:
Lynx vs Mercury Under 163.5
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About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give him a follow on X!
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