Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires as the process does not change. Rain or shine the Thursday article will drop. February has unfortunately been my first losing month since last year and of course it is a leap year!

Well I have found a loophole to avoid this extra day as the best bet will end after midnight thus making it March and will bring us officially back! This was not planned, my favorite game just happened to be in the late night matchup.

Max-a-Million Best Bets:

1. San Francisco +4.5 (Best Bet)

2. UT Arlington vs Seattle Under 146.5

1. San Francisco +4.5 (Best Bet)

As I alluded to earlier, our best bet will be this late night showdown between Gonzaga and San Francisco. ShotQuality is projecting a slight 0.3 edge for the Zags so we have value here on the home team.

The Dons are 22-7 this season and it is because of some solid offense.

• SF is 14th in SQ Shot Selection

• SF is 12th in Rim & 3 SQ PPP

San Francisco has excelled all year at taking high quality open shots (SQ Shot Selection). Specifically, they have been frequently getting quality looks at the rim and from deep (Rim & 3 SQ PPP).

My process often values those shots at the rim and from deep as those are the highest valued shots. The Gonzaga defense has not defended well against these attempts either which should help SF.

• Zags are 201st in Rim & 3 Defense

Like the Zags, San Fran also doesn't defend these shots well.

• SF is 311th in Rim & 3 Defense

This is a major concern as San Fran has really struggled to defend the rim and arc. Specifically, it has been the rim defense that has struggled for SF as they rank 328th in this category.

However, the SF defense shouldn't get diced as much as the Zags don't get attempts of this variety that frequently.

• Zags are 278th in Rim Frequency

Hopefully San Francisco shows up with some extra juice as Gonzaga is coming to town. Although this might not be your traditionally dominant Gonzaga team, SF will still be hyped for this challenge which will hopefully give the defense a boost.

2. UT Arlington vs Seattle Under 146.5

For our next and last play, I will be taking this under between UTA and Seattle. SQ is projecting about 143 points here so some value on the under.

What I like about this under is that these teams are the opposite of Gonzaga and Seattle as these squads defend the high value shots well.

• UTA is 31st in Rim & 3 Defense

• Seattle is 2nd in Rim & 3 Defense

These are some unreal defensive numbers at guarding the rim and three pointer. Their respective opponents don't excel at these shots either.

• UTA is 233rd in Rim & 3 Offense

• Seattle is 219th in Rim & 3 Offense

I am expecting these defensive units to win the battle unlike the first time they matched up. The last time these teams faced off UTA won 80-75.

However, the ShotQuality expected score was a Seattle win of 70-68. Those who have been tuning into the live BetCast shows (See you at 7:45pm Thursday night) know how much we trust the regression analysis. This doesn't just apply for live betting, but whenever you get a rematch as well. Let's hope this one lands closer to the 138 expected score vs the actual 155 they scored.

About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. He did this successfully last season for us picking 56% and profiting 28.5u on over 300 plays! Currently he sits at 53-53-1 and will hope to have a repeat of last season. Make sure to give him a follow on X!