The ShotQualityBets Model is projecting this matchup between Northern Iowa and Valparaiso at 140.2 points. Giving us a sizable edge on the Under at 147.5. Using the new scorecards from ShotQualityBets, we quickly can see that UNI rates 261st in Pace and Valpo rates 179th, while also seeing a stronger defense for UNI and a weak offense for Valparaiso. What stands out most, though, is that these teams both rate poorly in Shot Selection - 229th for UNI and an abysmal 343rd for Valparaiso. Add in that UNI has been distinctly lucky on totals, 13-14 OU vs 8-19 SQ OU, and we have a good spot. The regression data backs up these expectations for UNI, in conference play so far, teams are shooting 59% at the rim against UNI, while SQ expects 54%. UNI allows 32% of defensive possessions to finish at the rim, 22nd most, so seeing good defensive regression looming on their most allowed shot-type, is reassuring. Also nice to see for our Under, Valparaiso takes the 21st most Midrange shots in the nation, is rated 311th in expected midrange points per possession, and has the 354th worst Free Throw rate. Grab the Under and let’s get an ugly one.
👀 See the full matchup preview for Valpo UNI here.
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