Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to a Saturday edition of picks. March is finally here and we started the month off right getting a Lipscomb -2 winner yesterday.

Conference tournaments are starting Monday so this is our last loaded regular season Saturday but don't worry because the hoops over the next couple weeks will deliver. The reason I know March will deliver is because it always does, what a time to be alive and take some Max-a-Million best bets.

Max-a-Million Best Bets:

1. Marquette TT Under 74.5 (Best Bet)

2. UNCW vs Towson Under 132.5

3. Oakland 1H -9.5

1. Marquette TT Under 74.5 (Best Bet)

This was one I tweeted earlier but I would still play it at the current line of 73.5 as Tyler Kolek is out for this one. With Kolek in the lineup, ShotQuality is projecting Marquette to score 74.7 points.

Tyler Kolek is the reigning Big East POY and runs the point for Marquette. As you can see in the image above, he is tied with Kam Jones in terms of frequency of possessions used. The dude is a machine and the engine that gets this offense going.

His percentile rankings per ShotQuality are just outstanding.

• 96th %tile in FT Efficiency

• 95th %tile in Passing

• 94th %tile in Creating his Own Shot

His presence will be missed especially when you go on the road and face a good Creighton defense.

• Creighton is 3rd in Defensive Shot Selection

SQ Shot Selection measures how well a team is at generating open shots. The Creighton defense is 3rd when it comes to contesting opponent shots. Marquette will really be missing a guy like Kolek who can create his own shots and knock down tough ones. With that excellent passing as well he creates high quality opportunities for others.

Marquette is 11th in Offensive Shot Selection but this is something I will be monitoring live to see the opportunities they are generating. Kolek is out there running the point for 80% of the game for Marquette. I suspect the shot selection will take a dip here so let's go Marquette team total under.

2. UNCW vs Towson Under 132.5

Personally, this a matchup I am very much looking forward to watching. The stakes are high here as the winner will get the 4 seed and last double bye in the CAA tournament. ShotQuality is projecting 132.4 points here but I think with the high stakes and some key defensive metrics, it stays below 130.

Both of these teams prefer to play at a slower tempo.

• UNCW is 303rd in Tempo

• Towson is 358th in Tempo

This will set up for a lot of half court basketball which we like to see. Especially when you factor in how well these teams defend in the half court.

• UNCW is 132nd in Half Court Defensive Efficiency

• Towson is 44th in Half Court Defensive Efficiency

This game should play out just like it did in the first matchup which was a 67-64 win for Towson. However, that was actually high scoring as both teams overachieved! SQ actually projected that UNCW should have won 59-57 which is more where I see this game landing.

These are already two solid defenses, but they should get a bump because of some bad shot selection from their opponents.

• UNCW is 328th in Offensive Shot Selection

• Towson is 273rd in Offensive Shot Selection

With the double bye on the line and some great defensive edges, let's go under here in this one.

3. Oakland 1H -9.5

For this last play, I will be playing Oakland in the first half only. Similar to the last game, this bet will have a situational factor as well.

With a win today, Oakland will clinch the Horizon regular season title and a 1 seed for the conference tournament. They play this dreaded Detroit team and I think the motivation will be there early for Oakland as they play for the 1 seed.

As far as ShotQuality metrics, it should come as no surprise that this Detroit team is one of the worst ranked teams.

• Detroit is 342nd in Rim Defense

• Detroit is 357th in 3pt Defense

These are areas that the Oakland offense should really be able to exploit.

• Oakland is 31st in Rim Offense

• Oakland is 114th in 3pt Offense

I could see the defensive effort fading in the second half for Oakland but as long as they come to play early, they should establish a significant halftime lead. Detroit is 319th in turnover rate so hopefully a lot of easy buckets in transition off turnovers.

March is here, let's have some fun and cash some bets!

About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. He did this successfully last season for us picking 56% and profiting 28.5u on over 300 plays! Currently he sits at 54-54-1 and will hope to have a repeat of last season. Make sure to give him a follow on X!