Gonzaga Bulldogs 

Once considered a bubble team, the Zags rolled when the calendar turned to 2024, winning all but three games, including Tuesday's WCC Championship. However, Gonzaga is a lock for March Madness as the team waits for their seeding come Selection Sunday. 

Saint Mary's Gaels 

Winners of every game but one in 2024, the Gaels bested the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the WCC Championship to earn their fourth conference title in the past quarter century. Saint Mary's finished the regular season 2-1 against rival Gonzaga while owning a 2-1 SQ record. They would have made the NCAA Tournament regardless of Tuesday's result. 

San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs could lose their first game in the Mountain West Tournament and still hear their name called on Selection Sunday. However, they will still need to battle to improve their seeding, especially after losing their last two regular-season games. Fortunately, SQ had narrow losses against Boise State and UNLV, which were convincing wins based on shot selection. 

Dayton Flyers

Among A-10 teams, the Dayton Flyers are the only ones that can get into the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tourney. One of the best mid-majors via ShotQuality, they own a top 40 AdjO and AdjD, with a beautiful 88% rim and 3 rate.

Boise State Broncos

Outside the Aztecs, the Broncos are most likely the most established team in the Mountain West regarding the NCAA Tournament. A lock for March Madness, Boise will look to avoid the 8-9 matchup and move up on the seed line. They are 6-4 against top MWC teams this year but 4-6 via SQ. 

Colorado State Rams

The Rams could use a win or two in the Mountain West Tournament, but they are currently a 9th seed in Joe Lunardi's most recent Bracketology. However, they enter the conference tourney with a 4-3 ShotQuality record over their last seven, albeit close defeats to San Diego State, Nevada, and New Mexico. 

Indiana State Sycamores

Despite not ending up on the wrong side of a ShotQuality result since early January, the Sycamores will have to wait and see their NCAA Tournament fate come Selection Sunday. Indiana State fell in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship, 84-80, although they won in the SQ score, 81-69. They will now need to cheer for the least "bid stealers" to help their case as a bubble team. 

New Mexico Lobos

Yet another Mountain West team, New Mexico, is the only member of the core group to enter Champ Week on the outside looking in regarding March Madness. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has them as a "next four out" team, calling their game against Air Force a must-win. The Lobos are 1-1 against AF but 2-0 in SQ scores. 

Nevada Wolf Pack

The Wolf Pack are a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament but are fighting with Utah State, Boise State, and San Diego State for the top spot among MWC teams. However, they have been playing with fire, with just two wins via SQ by double-digits since the start of February. 

FAU Owls

Like Colorado State, the Florida Atlantic Owls should feel good heading into the American Athletic Conference Championship, but a few wins never hurt anyone. However, they would need a near-title run if not for some luck to begin March. The Owls are undefeated to start the month, but narrow wins over Tulane and North Texas are graded as ShotQuality losses. 

Utah State Aggies

Utah State is exceptionally safe regarding March Madness, and it is well deserved. They have been undefeated in their last five games, including winning against New Mexico and San Diego State. More importantly, they have won each of those ShotQuality scores.

Drake Bulldogs

The Drake Bulldogs picked a perfect time to get hot, winning the MVC Tournament and earning an automatic bid to March Madness. Drake would not have made the NCAA Tournament without the win in the title over ISU, which SQ graded as a loss. The Bulldogs scored 13 points more than expected from beyond the arc. 

Bradley Braves

Bradley will not head to March Madness, although they turned in a solid 2023-24 campaign. They fell flat against Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. They went 0-5 against Drake and Bradley, winning just two of those games via SQ. 

GCU Antelopes

Despite a fantastic regular-season record, the Antelopes must win the WAC Tournament to make March Madness. Like McNeese State in the Southland, GCU belongs to a one-bid league. They are 1-1 against their top conference rival, Tarleton State.

James Madison Dukes

After a win against the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the Sun Belt Championship, the Dukes are headed to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013. However, in one of the most lopsided ShotQuality scores in recent memory, JMU destroyed Arkansas State in a game that should have resulted in a near double-digit loss. However, with just three SQ losses since early November, they belong in March Madness. 

SMU Mustangs

After a brutal 10-22 record in 2023, the SMU Mustangs enjoyed a masterful bounceback season. However, they can still make March Madness by winning the AAC Tournament. They are battle-tested, with actual and SQ wins against Memphis, Florida State, and Tulane.  

Princeton Tigers

The top team in the Ivy League, the Princeton Tigers, have an outside chance to make the NCAA Tournament without winning the Ivy League Tournament. However, it is best not to leave it to chance, especially with "bid stealers" waiting in the wings. The Tigers have won nine straight, all of which were SQ victories. However, their most recent actual and SQ loss came against their top competition, the Yale Bulldogs. 

San Francisco Dons

After losing to the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the WCC Tournament, the San Francisco Dons are out of contention for the Field of 68. They went 0-5 against Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, never once winning in the SQ score. 

North Texas Mean Green

One of the unluckiest teams in college basketball, the Mean Green, will need to win the ACC Tournament to return to March Madness. They are 2-4 against South Florida, Memphis, SMU, and South Florida, but 4-2 in those games via SQ.

UNLV Rebels

Like most teams lower in the ranking, UNLV must cut down the nets in Vegas to punch their ticket to March Madness. However, they are 2-3 in SQ scores over their past five games, including losses against San Diego State and Wyoming, giving them little chance to string together many wins against elite competition. 

Richmond Spiders

With Dayton as the only lock via the A-10, the Spiders must run the table in Champ Week to go dancing. They already beat Dayton earlier this year, with ShotQuality considering it an outright victory. 

McNeese State Cowboys

The McNeese State Cowboys, winners of ten straight, will play the Nicholls Colonels in the Southland Championship. They are 2-0 against Nicholls, with both victories being blowouts. Despite 29 wins, they must win the Southland Tournament to advance to March Madness. 

Memphis Tigers

An up-and-down season has left Memphis with no choice but to make March Madness by winning the AAC Tournament or, at the very least, making the title game. As one of the next four teams out per Joe Lunardi, they are in a must-win against the winner of Rice and Wichita State. They are 2-1 in actual and SQ results against those two teams. 

VCU Rams

Although a dark horse to win the A-10 tourney, the Rams are ice cold entering Champ Week. They have lost four of their last six, including all but one via ShotQuality. Additionally, they have lost both games in terms of ShotQuality against top-ranked Dayton. 

Yale Bulldogs

Much like the Drake Bulldogs, the Yale Bulldogs are a solid team that will need to win the Ivy League Tournament to go dancing. They will likely need to go through the Princeton Tigers, who they have played tough, both in actual and SQ scores, each time. 

👇🏾 Mid Major Top 25 Weekly Line Movement

👇🏾 Mid Major Top 25 Weekly Average Rankings Movement

The rankings are determined by the average of the world's best college basketball analytical sites, including KenPom, Hasla, Torvik, the NET, and ShotQuality. It's important to note that the West Coast Conference includes Gonzaga and is considered a mid-major conference. So, without further delay, here is the first edition of the Mid-Major Top 25 rankings for the 2023-24 college basketball season.