The ShotQualityBets Model projects this A10 game between Dayton and St. Louis to finish with 143.3 points, giving us a play on the Under for todays POTD. Both teams have been seeing more points than expected in their games this season. Dayton’s 16-12 OU record is expected to be at 10-18 per SQ, and that difference is fueled by their 39% 3PT shooting mark on the year. ShotQuality expects 34%, a big difference. St. Louis, too, is seeing similar types of regression numbers, but on defense as well. They are both hitting and allowing 3% more makes than expected from 3PT range. Will all the regression come home in one single night, probably not, but the efficiency metrics these teams have put forward this year are likely inflated, which means this number could be as well. Dayton is a Top 15 defense by SQPPP, and allows the 4th toughest shot selection in the nation. There’s plenty reason to believe the Billiken’s 12th (of 15) rated offense in the A10 will stumble here. Throw in Dayton’s slow pace, and we may have more of a rock fight than a 150 point line indicates.
👀 See the full matchup preview for Dayton vs St. Louis here.
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