No Margin For Error: 📅 Wednesday, February 28th, 7:00pm EST, Knoxville, TN 📺 ESPN2

FDU and UMBC may have poked holes in the safety of a one-seed, it's still a desirable achievement for the elite teams in college basketball. As one of the two powerhouse conferences in the country, the SEC's regular season champion seems more than deserving of one. Five teams, including Tennessee and Auburn, sit within a game and a half of the top so every loss from here on out will be a massive blow to the resume.

Despite one more loss and a few slip ups against other SEC frontrunners, Auburn still sits ahead of Tennessee in our Adjusted ShotQuailty (adj SQ) ratings:

The Tigers are a blue-collar bunch with no sexy numbers, just very strong across the board on both sides of the ball. Defensively, Auburn simply has no weak link. They defend just as well in the half court (5th in ShotQuality Points Per Possession) as they do in transition (2nd in SQ PPP) and in every core action -- pick-and-roll, off-screen, iso's and cuts -- the Tigers rank no lower than 38th in SQ PPP allowed. There's just no good way to attack to them.

The hope for Tennessee would lie in their own defense punishing some of the Auburn shooting woes. We've covered the struggles of freshman guard Aden Holloway before (for those wondering, he's back to playing major minutes after the Kentucky loss) as they exemplify the weakest areas of this Tiger team -- guard play and 3-point shooting. Auburn's frequency of off-the-dribble 3-point attempts outpaces their frequency of off-the-catch shots from deep which is, well, not ideal. On top of that, their expected points on either type of attempt leaves a lot to be desired:

This would seem to play right into the hands of the Vols who already excel at limiting open shots from deep. Tennessee's Open 3 Rate is the 21st lowest in the country which may exacerbate Auburn's issue of creating clean looks from deep. That alone might swing this game though the Tigers coaching staff might give them a bit of help.

One of the fun stats SQ tracks is a team's performance after timeouts or "ATO" situations. The genius of coaches in these spots tends to get blown out of proportion a bit, but in a game this close with this much as stake, the little stuff on the margins will matter. Auburn currently rank third in SQ PPP in ATO situations while Tennessee ranks just 169th in SQ PPP allowed in such situations. Given this game could come down to a handful of possessions following late game timeouts, the fact that the Tigers can create an advantage there could swing the contest.

Before they get to those end game scenarios, however, they need to make sure the stop the Vol everyone is talking about, Dalton Knecht. Fresh off dropping 24 on Texas A&M, Knecht has been making a case all season for being the most impactful transfer in the country. He's virtually automatic on open catch-and-shoot 3's (97th percentile in the country) and equally as scary for opponents coming off screens and firing from deep (94th percentile). After years of defensive-first teams in the Rick Barnes era, Tennessee's offense (19th in adjOFF SQ) actually outpaces their defense (33rd in adjDEF SQ) this season and it's hard not say it's almost solely due to the presence of Knecht.

Knecht only, however, will not guarantee the Vols a home win against a Tiger team looking to catch them at the top of the SEC standings. With Mississippi State (8-7) being the only team above .500 in conference left on their schedule, an Auburn win here in these two foes only SEC matchup could hand them the crown. Tennessee meanwhile has a gauntlet ahead of them with two games on the road versus ranked foes in Alabama and South Carolina before heading back to Knoxville to play Kentucky. That means this game tonight is almost a must win if the Vols want to keep their hopes of a SEC crown -- and the No. 1 seed that might come with it -- alive and well.