Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to the beginning of what should be a phenomenal Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets may have been the better team but I took that +195 series price with the Timberwolves so I was happy to see that unlikely comeback by Minnesota to take games 6 & 7 against the reigning champs.

The underdog mentality is over now as Minnesota is laying about 4.5 points tonight against the Mavericks. I will not be playing the spread but rather have a bet on the total, along with two props.

1. Minnesota vs Dallas Under 207.5

For my first play, I will be taking the under in the opening game of this series. I think the pace of this game will end up being a slow one as it is a feeling out game early in the series.

• MN is 25th in Pace

• DAL is 11th in Pace

The Timberwolves prefer to play at a slower pace so we like to see that when taking an under. Although the Mavericks play at an above average pace, I am not too worried about it because of the defense from Minnesota.

• MN is 11th in Transition Defensive Frequency

• MN is 9th in Transition Defensive Efficiency

The good transition defense should help force both opponents into playing in the halfcourt and using up that shot clock.

I think the under is the right side in this matchup because of the defensive edges both teams will have.

• MN is 3rd in Adj SQ Defense

• DAL is 21st in Adj SQ Defense

It is no secret the Timberwolves can defend as that is how they overcame the Nuggets and got to this point in the playoffs. The bigger question is how can Dallas who has an adjusted ShotQuality defensive rating of 21st possibly have an edge?

First, Dallas has turned up the defensive intensity here in the postseason. The Thunder had a pretty solid offensive squad and they held them to just 106 points per game.

Second, this matchup should be much easier than the Thunder's offense. Minnesota ranks 21st in Adjusted SQ offense as they can struggle on that side of the ball. Hopefully those offensive woes continue and neither team gets to 100 points would be ideal.

If you don't want to sweat out the game under, I also don't mind the 1Q or 1H unders either. This is my only play on the game, but I've got two player props I really like for tonight.

2. Luka Under 28.5 Points (+105 on DK)

Luka has been struggling a little over the last 5 games per the graphic above.

• Averaging 23.4 SQ Points

• Averaging 25.8 Actual Points

On top of that, he is going against one of the best defenses in the league as we established earlier. Minnesota ranks 2nd in defensive shot selection as they just don't give up any easy looks. I fully expect them to have a game plan Luka who will likely draw Minnesota's best defender.

In the Thunder series this was Dort who I thought did a good job. For this game, Minnesota has plenty of options but I think McDaniels gets the assignment and is up for the challenge.

3. Kyrie Under 21.5 Points (-103 on CZR)

Similar to Luka, Kyrie has been trending under this number in his last 5 games.

• Averaging 16.9 SQ Points

• Averaging 14.8 Actual Points

Kyrie just wasn't getting the volume we would expect out of someone with a prop in the 20 point range. Until he starts to look for his shot more, we have to take the under here.

Even if he does look for his shot more, there is no guarantee he goes over. Like I mentioned before, this Timberwolves defense is one of the best in the league. If Luka is drawing McDaniels, that means Kyrie is getting the next best defender which is the dog that is Anthony Edwards.

This game will be very intriguing to watch as both teams will have to gameplan, read, and react. Let's just hope that this game has a lot of unders and they don't figure out any offensive gameplans until next game.

About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give him a follow on X!