SQ Optimized Model

Quarters/Halves and Time Remaining in each

Actual Points For

Opponent Actual Points

Actual Points minus Actual Opponent Points

Sum of Actual Points and Actual Opponent Points

Amount by which the Team's Actual Point Differential Exceeds the Drive Quality Point Differential

Closing Consensus Pregame Point Spread

Closing Consensus Pregame Total

Live Consensus Point Spread

Live Consensus Point Total

Optimized Live Spread Accounting for Score, Time Remaining, Closing Pregame Spread and Drive Quality Score

The Difference Between the Live Projected Spread and the Actual Live Spread, at that Time.

Optimized Live Total Accounting for Score, Time Remaining, Closing Pregame Total and Drive Quality Combined Score

The Difference Between the Live Projected Total and the Actual Live Total, at that Time.

% of plays where a team gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down

% of plays where a team eithers run for 10 or more yards or passes for 20 or more yards

Prob(Kickoff Return) * Kickoff Return Average

Prob(Punt Return) * Punt Return Average

Days since teams last game

Prob(Offensive Penalty | Officiating Crew) * Average Offensive Penalty Yards

Prob(Defensive Penalty | Officiating Crew) * Average Defensive Penalty Yards

ShotQuality Expected Points Per Possession in the In-Game

Percentage by which the Team is Underperforming its In-Game Expectations. 10% means the Team is Underperforming & -5% means the Team is Overperforming

Percentage by which the Team is Overperforming its Pre-Game Expectations. 10% means the Team is Overperforming & -5% means the Team is Underperforming

Actual Opponent Points Per Possession in the In-Game

Percentage by which the Opponent is Overperforming its Pre-Game Expectations. 10% means the Opponent is Overperforming & -5% means the Opponent is Underperforming

Percentage by which the Opponent is Underperforming its In-Game Expectations. 10% means the Opponent is Underperforming & -5% means the Opponent is Overperforming

Opponent Expected Points Per Possession in the In-Game

Represents Largest Difference between Live Proj Spread and Live Spread under Current Filtered Criteria

Percentage by which the Opponent's In-Game Expectations exceed its Pre-Game Expectations. 10% means the Opponent is Underperforming & -5% means the Opponent is Overperforming

Percentage by which the Team's In-Game Expectations exceed its Pre-Game Expectations. 10% means the Team is Underperforming & -5% means the Team is Overperforming

Expected Points Against

Expected Points For

Actual Points Per Possession For in the In-Game

Percentage by which the Game's Actual Pace Exceeds the Pregame Pace

The Game's Actual Pace

Projected Pregame Pace (Average of Both Teams in Previous Games)

Amount by which the Actual Total Points Scored by Both Teams Exceeds the total ShotQuality Points.

Amount by which the Actual Total Points Scored by Both Teams Exceeds the total ShotQuality Points.

Sum of SQ Points and Opponent SQ Points

SQ Points Minus Points

Minimum Time Elapsed in the Game

Line at Time of Play

Play

Play Line Value

Points of Value

Selected Book

ShotQuality Projection

The combined score of both teams in any given basketball game. This is graded against to determine the winner of over & under bets.

bets

The percentage of time a team covers the spread set by the sportsbooks regardless of whether they are the favorite or the underdog. For example, if the favorite is expected to win by 3 (spread is -3) and they win by 4 the favorite covered. Conversely, if the underdog is expected to lose by 3 (+3) and the ShotQuality Score had them lose by 2 the underdog covered.

The winning percentage when the team was the pre-game favorite. A favorite is the the team or player that is expected to win, based on the odds set by bookmakers or sportsbooks. The favorite is typically indicated by a negative point spread or moneyline.

Percent of times the team went over the closing line set by the sportsbooks. An 'over bet' refers to a type of wager related to the total combined score of a game. Before a game starts, oddsmakers will set a predicted total score for both teams combined. Bettors can then wager on whether the actual combined score will be over or under that predicted total.

Expected wins and losses for a team, considering the quality of shots taken and allowed.

The percentage of time a team covers the ShotQuality score differential. For example, if the sportsbooks have a team expected to win by 3 and the ShotQuality Score had them winning by 4 the team covered. Conversely, if the sportsbooks have a team losing by 3 and the ShotQuality Score had them winning by 2 the underdog covered.

The winning percentage when the team was favored by the sportsbooks and won according to the ShotQuality score.

The percentage of times the total ShotQuality score of the game went over the projected total from the sportsbooks.

The percentage of times the total ShotQuality score of the game went under the projected total from the sportsbooks.

The winning percentage when the team was an underdog by the sportsbooks and won according to the ShotQuality score.

Percent of games won in the season according to the ShotQuality Score which is based on the team's expected performance.

Percent of times the team went under the closing line set by the sportsbooks. An 'under bet' refers to a type of wager related to the total combined score of a game.

The winning percentage when the team was the pre-game underdog. An underdog is the the team or player that is expected to lose, based on the odds set by bookmakers or sportsbooks. The underdog is typically indicated by a negative point spread or moneyline.

Percent of games won in the season

Also Known As: Return on Investment - the raw percent relationship between how much you have risked (invested) and how much you have returned.

Wins represent a tally of successful ShotQualityBets predictions against betting spreads and lines.

This indicates which side of a betting line the ShotQualityBets model is showing value on. Combine this with Points of Value to get the complete picture!

Best bet is your best player props pick.

Points per field goal attempt.

Expected Points Per Shot. Incorporates up to 90 variables, including shot type, shooter ability, defender location, and defender height.

SQ Result is the expected average final score if the two teams played again with the same shot selection.

Adjusted ShotQuality (adj SQ) evaluates a team's shooting efficacy (adjOFF SQ) and defensive prowess (adjDEF SQ) adjusted for strength of schedule (teams facing tougher opponents see ratings adjust favorably, while those against weaker foes show a decline).

Constant value to add to the projection.

The team's offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) in the game so far.

The team's ShotQuality expected offensive rating (points per 100 possessions).

Live OU is the consensus market prices being offered live consisting of a blended average of: DraftKings, FanDuel, Kambi, Bet365, and Pinnacle

The team's offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) as predicted by the pregame spread, pregame total, and the average pace of the two teams (Pregame Pace).

Blended average incorporating the weights used on pregame expected metrics and live SQ metrics located in the 'Weights' tab within Trader Dashboard

Strong evidence exists that teams play slightly worse as score margin increases, and teams play slightly better as score margin decreases. A team leading by 10 points will play slightly worse than the same team leading by 20 points. Regression Points per Possession accounts for this, allowing us to forecast counterintuitive and non-competitive results that can occur in a game.

For each four-minute period of the game, we fit a linear model to the six pace-efficiency combinations: 1. Live pace and pregame PPP 2. Live pace and live PPP 3. Live pace and live SQ PPP 4. Pregame pace and pregame PPP 5. Pregame pace and live PPP 6. Pregame pace and live SQ PPP