Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to a Thursday edition of WNBA best bets. The card is loaded with 4 total games and I will be previewing two of those games with plays on the totals so let's dive in.
Max-a-Million Best Bets:
Aces vs Sky Over 169.5
Mystics vs Sun Under 153.5
1. Aces vs Sky Over 169.5
For our first play I am taking the over in this matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and the Chicago Sky. The main reason I like this over is because I am expecting a lot of transition basketball in this matchup.
Aces are 1st in Tempo
The Aces are the fastest paced team in the league which has helped lead them to an 8-6 start to the over this season. Their transition game should be even more effective because of the Chicago Sky's style of play.
Sky are 1st in Offensive Rebound Rate
The Sky crash the offensive glass with the help of Angel Reese and others. Offensive rebounds help create easy buckets for our over. However, if a team crashes the glass frequently, they will fail to get back on defense.
The Aces should be able to exploit some poor transition defense from the Sky which will lead to quick baskets which is perfect for our over. When the transition baskets are not there and they are forced into the halfcourt, I am not too worried as both offenses are efficient.
Aces are 2nd in Adj SQ Offense
Sky are 5th in Adj SQ Offense
Both of these teams have been effective this season by running good sets and taking quality shots.
Sky are 3rd in Shot Selection Offense
The Sky especially should help this one get over in the shot selection department as they take high quality shots. On the other end of the floor, they give up a ton of good looks to opponents.
Sky are 12th in Shot Selection Defense
The Aces should have no problem getting easy buckets either so I like this game to be played into the 170s or higher.
2. Mystics vs Sun Under 153.5
For our next play, I am taking the under in this matchup between the Washington Mystics and the Connecticut Sun.
Although the Mystics have struggled, their defense has fueled this recent 4-1 run after starting 0-12. The turnaround didn't really come as a surprise as SQ projected they should've been 6-6 so regression was coming.
Mystics rank 4th in Adj SQ Defense
The Sun had a complete opposite start as they are 13-3 and won their first 9 games of the season. That start was completely fueled by dominant defense.
Sun rank 2nd in Adj SQ Defense
The Sun has reeked havoc across the entire league and should have one of their easiest foes here as the Mystics are inept on offense.
The Mystics offense is:
12th Overall
11th in Shot Selection
7th in Shot Making
11th in Rim & 3
The offensive unit for Washington has struggled all year and I expect nothing different here against an elite Sun defense. As long as the Washington defense can hold their own as well, we will hopefully get an under here.
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give him a follow on X!
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