The WNBA is currently on its Olympic hiatus so there is no better time to take a look at season long win totals using the 25 games of data we have thus far.

The main thing we are going to be focused on here is record luck. ShotQuality record luck shows the difference between a teams actual record and their SQ record.

Looking at the standings above, we are going to be targeting two teams who have been on opposite sides of the record luck and using this information to make some bets. The first of these teams will be the New York Liberty who sit on top of the current WNBA standings.

• Liberty Actual Record 21-5

• Liberty SQ Record 16-10

The ShotQuality record takes a teams record based on the quality of shots taken in each game. Here we can see that the Liberty are overperforming by 5 wins! The main driver of this regression has been on the defensive end.

Looking at the Liberty's regression analysis, they are giving up 0.07 PPP less than we have expected. Although it might not seem like much, that can be the difference between 5 wins when you look at a sample of 25 games.

Bet: New York Liberty Under 32.5 Wins (-160)

It is a little steep on the price, but the goal here is to just find 4 losses as there are 15 remaining games. Looking at the schedule below, there is a path to 4 losses and more than likely 5.

The Liberty have 2 games still remaining against the Aces so conservatively speaking they will split so that is 1 loss. However, I think the Aces are the best team in the league so I wouldn't be surprised to see them win both. They also still have a home and road series with the Storm which is a tough travel spot. Conservatively speaking, let's chalk up those 4 games against the Aces and Storm as 2 losses.

That leaves us with 11 remaining games with some very possible losses against the likes of the Sun, Mercury, Lynx and maybe an unexpected candidate.

Specifically that Sun game is one I have circled. The Liberty are 3-0 against the Sun but ShotQuality projected them to lose all 3 games! I think we have plenty of options here to get this one under so let's lay the juice.

Next up on the standings are the Washington Mystics who haven't had the same fortunes as some other teams.

• Mystics Actual Record 6-19

• Mystics SQ Record 11-14

Similar to the Liberty, we have a 5 game differential but it is in the opposite direction. The Mystics have just been very unlucky this season and hopefully that turns around after a month of practice to get ready as the bottom of the league isn't sending players to Paris like the top.

Bet: Washington Mystics Over 11.5 (+105)

To balance out the first play where we had to pay some juice, I've got a nice plus money price here. However, is there a path to 6 wins for Washington's remaining 15 games?

We currently have the Mystics ranked as the 7th best team per our ShotQuality standings which is likely much higher than some would expect from a 6-19 team. Right after the break, 4 of the next 5 games are against the Lynx and Storm. Of those 4 games I think they can pull off 1 win.

They will have 6 games remaining against the bottom 4 teams ranked below them in the SQ standings so let's call that a split and 3 wins.

One of the main things I really like here is their final 2 games of the year are both at home and might not matter for their opponents. If seeding and playoff standings are locked in, they could very well steal one or both at home against the Liberty and Fever to end the year. Ideally, we are just in a situation where they will need to win 1 of those to get to 12 wins.

This one is a plus price for a reason, but I think if the Mystics see some of that expected regression then they can find themselves at 12 wins.

Best of luck to anyone tailing!

About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give him a follow on X!