Max-a-Million Best Bets: July 7th
2024-07-07 Max Hofmeyer

Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to a loaded Sunday WNBA slate. This WNBA season has been monstrous in popularity compared to prior season and that is further displayed with their All-Star voting being up by a whopping 600%!

I can only imagine that the betting handle is drastically increased as well so it is important we are utilizing all the resources we have to try and make some money. I will be attempting to do such today as I have 2 bets I really like.

Max-a-Million Best Bets:

  1. Storm TT Over 86.5 (BEST BET)

  2. Aces vs Wings Over 176


1. Storm TT Over 86.5 (BEST BET)

Let's first talk about the best bet on today's card as those are typically 2u plays. The first thing that stands out here is the clear offensive advantage the Storm will have.

  • Storm are 2nd in Adj SQ OFF

The Storm have proven to be one of the contenders in this league and that has been led by their 1.11 SQ PPS generated on offense. The offense should get a bump as well as they are facing the Sky who are 2nd last in overall defensive metrics.

  • Sky are 11th in Adj SQ DEF

  • Sky are 12th in DEF Shot Selection

  • Sky are 12th in DEF Rim & 3

The Sky grade out very poorly in many of the most important SQ statistics. Defensive shot selection grades a team based on the quality of shots they allow and clearly the Sky allow some easy shots as they are last in shot selection.

They also grade last in Defensive Rim & 3 SQ PPP. This stat measures a team's ability to defend the highest quality shots which are at the rim and from deep. The Sky are the worst at this as well so the Storm should be able to exploit.

I am fully expecting the Storm to be able to take advantage of this matchup in transition.

  • Storm are 2nd in Tempo

The Storm have played at a fast pace all season which has helped with them generate efficient looks. That edge should be increased here considering the matchup.

  • Sky are 1st in OFF Rebound Rate

The Sky love to crash the offensive glass which results in them not getting back on defense to stop the transition attack. The Storm should take full advantage of this transition edge and get quick shots which are great for our team total over.

These teams just played 2 days ago and the Storm actually fell short of this number so how could I possibly take the over?

Although the Storm only scored 84 points, ShotQuality expected them to score 93! They had an off night but I think they bounce back here and find themselves in the 90s which makes this a best bet.


2. Aces vs Wings Over 176

For our next play, I am taking another over but for the game rather than just one team. Both of these teams have performed well to the over per the image below.

The Aces and Wings are a combined 24-15-1 to the over but are 27-13 if you factor in the ShotQuality scores. This is important because it tells us that they aren't good over teams because of luck or bad variance. The data supports this over trend and even thinks it could be better.

Aces' games have been going over this season due to the style that they play.

  • Aces are 1st in Tempo

Las Vegas likes to get out and run which is always good for our over. That is exactly what happened the last time these teams faced off.

The Aces won by a score of 95-81 which was exactly 176 points. However, ShotQuality expected a much better game for the Wings as they had an off night.

ShotQuality expected the score to be 92-92 which would 184 points getting us over the total so let's bet on them to bounce back here. Best of luck to anyone tailing!


About the Author

Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. Make sure to give him a follow on X!

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