Courtside Chronicles: Chasing Cinderella to Phoenix and Crowning a Champion
The 2024 Final Four, I believe, had and still has some of the most intrigue we've seen in quite some time.
Everyone loves a Cinderella, and although they are a Power 6 program, North Carolina State was certainly that. A 14 loss team in the Final weekend!? And how about Nate Oats and Alabama? I've had my reservations in the past about Nate Oats' style being able to make it to this point. When you rely so heavily on the three point shot, it creates volatility with that shot obviously being a lower percentage attempt than inside the arc.
Volatility isn't necessarily great when you need to win 6 straight games. You give lesser opponents more of a chance as well. However, I think the volatility is perfect for when his teams don't have the best regular season and don't receive a great seed. It's more enticing to play a volatile style against opponents that should be better than you, giving yourself a chance. Alabama did that against North Carolina en route to this Final Four.
Then you've got the heavyweights, in more ways than one. Zach Edey is our first back to back national player of the year since Ralph Sampson in '83. The same year as NC State's last Final Four. Sampson was also 7-4, like Edey. The Boilermakers returned nearly their entire cast, added Lance Jones, and have overcome their previous early round blunders.
And then there's the defending national champs, UConn. A team that's on the brink of capitalizing on the most dominant 2 year tourney run we've seen in 50 years. We've only had 2 back to back national champs since '74. Duke in '91-'92, and Florida in '06-'07. Duke won their 12 straight games by a total of 162 points. Florida won 12 straight by a total of 181 points. UConn entering the Final Four had beaten their 10 straight NCAA Tournament opponents by a total of 231 points. Appreciate the history we are witnessing. Now, for a review of the semifinal games, and a preview of our upcoming championship.
NC St. vs Purdue
ShotQuality saw this end coming. North Carolina State, according to the quality of shots both teams were getting, was supposed to lose 5 of their last 6 games entering the Final Four. Obviously that didn't happen. NC State had shot the ball extremely well but just as importantly, their opponents couldn't throw it in the ocean. Every 6 seed or better that NC State saw, Texas Tech, Marquette, and Duke, shot it 25% or worse from behind the three point line. Sure, some of that was NC State's defense, but wow were some open looks consistently missed.
Purdue punched NC State in the mouth early after a Lance Jones 3 gave Purdue a double digit lead less than 10 minutes into the game. NC State, as they've done several times before, responded. Heading into the last 20 seconds of the first half, NC State had cut it to a 1 possession game. All night NC State would sink and double Edey, and a few times Edey did his best DJ Burns impression to make the Wolfpack pay. To end the half he kicked to Fletcher Loyer for a big 3 to give Purdue momentum and put them up 6 into the break. Another Lance Jones 3 at the 12:43 mark extended Purdue's lead to 12. Those 3 point examples are exactly what other teams were missing against NC State in the previous round.
Purdue finished 10-25 from deep, shooting very close to their average at 40%, and that would be enough to send NC State packing. NC State's really only hope was a hot shooting night for themselves while the Boilermakers went cold, but they shot just 5-19 from three themselves. Just 33% of the looks NC State got, ShotQuality would consider good shot attempts. For Purdue, that number was 54%. Zach Edey simply draws too much attention for this team to not get those looks.
UConn vs Alabama
In the second game, UConn looked to continue their dominant run. Alabama did a fantastic job hanging in for 30ish minutes, but the Huskies simply outlast you. It's a bad combination when you've got one of the worst defenses in Power 6 basketball going against the best offense in the country.
Yes, Alabama can score, but the question was can they get enough stops to find a way? That answer was no. Early in this one Alabama was able to set their tempo, and terrific perimeter shooting doesn't hurt that cause (8-11 from three in the first half). Less than 9 minutes into the game Alabama led 23-18, on pace for over 100 points. But UConn being the more committed team on the defensive end of the floor was really able to slow the Tide down the rest of the night. UConn beat Bama over the next 10 minutes 24-12. Grant Nelson gave it everything he had yet again, but especially early in the second half willing the Tide back to a tie game with 12:44 to play. The great teams, though, they seem to have a refusal to fail and take over when things get tight. I don't think there's any denying UConn is a great team. An 8-0 run ensued in just 1:34 of game time and that was really the beginning of the end for Alabama, never getting in within 6 afterwards. Both these teams shot it great, nearly everyone on both teams that played, scoring at or above where ShotQuality projected them to. Both teams shot 40% or better from three. So how'd the under still hit? There were 64 possessions in this game. UConn averages 64.7, 328th in the country. Alabama averages 72.6, 14th in the country. Shocker, Dan Hurley perfectly executed his game plan to control the tempo, and over time take advantage of Alabama's defensive lapses. This allowed us to get pretty easy 2H covers in UConn -5.5 and Under 83.5 thanks to ShotQuality's live data.
UConn vs Purdue
Now for our national title game. Kenpom's number 1 and number 2 ranked teams in the country. Purdue is seeking their first ever national title as they return to this game for the first time since 1969. UConn is looking to make it back to back, and 6 titles since 1999. If you still have any question about this dominant 2 year UConn run, look at the spread for tonight's game. Vegas is saying that on a neutral floor, UConn is 6.5 points better than the 2nd best team in the country. That's absurd, and I think the line is right.
I'm completely staying away from [betting] this game pregame, but will see what the ShotQuality data is telling us as we get closer to halftime.
Let's look at what both teams do well and where they focus. Purdue is 3rd in the country in their frequency of post up shots. When you have the defending player of the year and he happens to be 7-4, that makes sense. They're also top 5 in good passing and offensive rebounding percentage. They're top 10 in allowing few shots at the rim thanks to Edey, as well as top 15 in their efficiency attacking the rim and how often they get to the line. It will be very interesting to see how UConn defends Edey and if they feel Clingan can hold Edey with minimal doubling or help.
For Uconn, ShotQuality considers them the best passing team in the country. My eyes would say the same, it's absolutely gorgeous basketball. Poetry in motion. They're also top 10 in their high spacing and offensive rebound percentage. It's tough to force misses on these two teams in the first place. Then you've also got to worry about not allowing second chance points. UConn is also top 40 in defensive rebounding, taking care of the basketball, defense against shots at the rim, and is top 20 in efficient 3 point shooting. A lot of great and next to no bad when analyzing what these two focus on.
I believe UConn's any guy on any given night approach will allow them to win their second straight national title, but I'm not confident enough to lay the points. Regardless of what happens, this should be the most anticipated championship we'd had in quite some time, and man, are the narratives abundant or what?
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