Welcome back my fellow Max-a-Millionaires as I regrettably inform you this will be the last college basketball article of the season. Don't cry because it is over, smile because it happened.
I couldn't think of a better game to end our season on and I think Dan Hurley said it best after the Alabama game. He mentioned how these two teams have been two of the best teams all season and it is great for college basketball to see these titans face off for a national championship. I am going to give an extended preview of this matchup and will include all of my bets at the end so let's dive in.
Currently the Huskies sit at about 6 point favorites while ShotQuality is projecting this to be a 4 point win so some slight value on Purdue. I think that 2 point differential makes sense considering Uconn has been so dominant you are going to have to pay a premium to take this team.
After the Alabama game, they have covered 11 straight tournament games dating back to last year and have a chance to make it back to back perfect years outright and against the spread. However, Purdue will certainly be their toughest foe during this incredible run and the matchup between the front courts is most enticing to me.
Finally, a Fair Fight
Both of these teams have had significant edges all tournament with the size of Clingan and Edey but finally we get a matchup where a team potentially has an answer for both bigs. I thought we might get Creighton and Purdue as I would have loved to see Kalkbrenner vs Edey but this will be just as good.
One of the most challenging things to do as a big, is to defend without fouling. However, both teams really excel at defending without fouling, specifically Purdue.
Uconn is 135th in DEF Foul Rate
Purdue is 4th in DEF Foul Rate
I was shocked that neither of these bigs have fouled out this season and I don't expect that here as I believe the referees will let these two go at it in a clean but physical matchup. I have to give Edey the edge here in this matchup because of his durability.
Clingan plays 49% of Minutes
Edey plays 79% of Minutes
Most big men don't have the ability to go a full 40 minutes but Edey is one of the rare exceptions. In fact, his minutes have increased since the Sweet 16 as he has played 98% of the minutes during that stretch.
During this tournament run, Edey is currently averaging 28 points which is right on target with the SQ projection of 27.9 points. The offense runs through him and if you think that continues here, his prop is sitting at about 24.5 points.
Clingan hasn't been asked to do too much all year since this team is so loaded top to bottom. I think there is a chance where Edey can really wear him down and it will be up to Samson off the bench to produce some valuable minutes defensively.
The matchup between this pair of 7 footers is going to be great for us viewers at home. One thing to watch out for is if either gets in foul trouble, be ready to take a live bet because this will create a significant edge for one team. Although the bigs are the headliners, it could be the guard play that decides this matchup.
Battle of the Backcourt
It will be really intriguing to see how Purdue's guards can respond to the size that Uconn has. Braden Smith, Lance Jones, and Fletcher Loyer all have an average height of about 6 foot 1 while Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer, and Stephon Castle sit at an average height of about 6 foot 5.
Purdue has to make sure they don't get rattled by this size and turn it over like they did against NC State. Purdue averages about 11.5 turnovers a game but had well over that in their last game turning it over 16 times.
The good news for both of these squads is that neither defense really turns opponents over.
Uconn is 251st in DEF TO Rate
Purdue is 342nd in DEF TO Rate
I would expect both teams to have no more than 10-12 turnovers in this matchup as both offenses have some great ball protectors. That starts with each of their point guards, Braden Smith and Tristen Newton.
Portrayed above is the ShotQuality player profiles for both Braden Smith and Tristen Newton. As you can see, both of these guys are two of the best passers we have in the league and this is why both teams lead the country in assist rate.
Uconn is 5th in Assist Rate
Purdue is 2nd in Assist Rate
The offensive sets these teams run is just a masterclass to watch and is why they assist on 65% of their made field goals. The question is will the defenses be able to match the high octane offense.
Defense Wins Championships
The best part about this matchup is whatever one team has, the opponent can counter. Nate Oats took the strategy of doubling the post and leaving Uconn shooters open for three. He didn't do this because he wanted to but rather because he didn't have a choice!
Both of these teams have options and won't be forced to play left handed.
Uconn DEF Allows 0.97 PPP
Purdue DEF Allows 1.01 PPP
This game is all strengths on strengths as it will be good offense on good defense and good defense on good offense. I think this creates a "feel each other out" type of game early. Both teams will have to adjust to not having a significant edge they can exploit early in a game.
Both of these teams are really good at defensive rebounding so they will likely just have to defend for one shot per possession so getting quality looks will be very important. When it comes to allowing good looks, both teams excel.
Uconn is 23rd in DEF Shot Selection
Purdue is 9th in DEF Shot Selection
ShotQuality defensive shot selection grades a teams ability to force opponents into tough contested shots. This makes sense when you have two great rim protectors who aren't going to allow quality hoops at the rim. This forces opponents into settling for tough shots and why defense will be so important here.
Summary
While I was typing this, I caught myself talking about how BOTH teams are good at this and good at that. That is the best part about this game, neither team really has flaws so it should be a great game.
I think this creates a feeling out period for the teams as they also only have essentially 1 day to prepare. When it is strength on strength, I personally will give the edge to the defense and is why my best bet was Under 148.5 in this game. I posted that one last night, but I still really like the under at the current line of 146. Speaking of the under, let's dive into the remainder of the bets I played.
Max-a-Million Best Bets
Full disclosure, this is my Super Bowl so I like to spray the board and therefore I will list the bets in tiers for those that want quality over volume. You have to use what every strategy fits your budget and works for you.
In last year's championship I gave out 6 props and we went 5-1. Hopefully we can end the season like that as I have 8 props I played so let's dive in.
Tier 1 Bets:
Game Under 148.5 (Posted yesterday for followers but still a best bet at 146+)
Donovan Clingan Over 7.5 Rebounds (-112 on FD)
Mason Gillis Under 1.5 3PM (-160 on DK)
Fletcher Loyer Under 1.5 3PM (-125 on DK)
Zach Edey Under 1.5 AST (+110 on MGM)
Tier 2 Bets:
First Half Under 69 (-115 on DK)
Donovan Clingan Under 13.5 Points (-104 on FD)
Zach Edey Over 12.5 Rebounds (+110 on MGM)
Braden Smith Over 5.5 Rebounds (+118 on FD)
Lance Jones Under 11.5 Points (-132 on FD)
That wraps up the full card as we have TEN total plays! Plenty of action for the people to pick and choose your favorites. Best of luck to those tailing and enjoy the final game of the season, cheers!
Also, just wanted to say thank you to all the Max-a-Millionaires out there. You guys are the best and I really appreciate all the likes, comments, and positive vibes all season. We had our ups and downs but stick with me in the long run peeps because it isn't a hobby.
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. He did this successfully last season for us picking 56% and profiting 28.5u on over 300 plays! Currently he sits at 27-15 for March Madness so make sure to give him a follow on X!
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