Betting Winning Metrics Glossary

Points Per Possession (PPP)

Expected Points Per Shot. Incorporates up to 90 variables, including shot type, shooter ability, defender location, and defender height. Click Here to Learn more

Points per field goal attempt.

Opponent Expected Points Per Possession in the In-Game

Percentage by which the Opponent is Underperforming its In-Game Expectations. 10% means the Opponent is Underperforming & -5% means the Opponent is Overperforming

Percentage by which the Opponent is Overperforming its Pre-Game Expectations. 10% means the Opponent is Overperforming & -5% means the Opponent is Underperforming

Actual Opponent Points Per Possession in the In-Game

Percentage by which the Team is Overperforming its Pre-Game Expectations. 10% means the Team is Overperforming & -5% means the Team is Underperforming

Percentage by which the Team is Underperforming its In-Game Expectations. 10% means the Team is Underperforming & -5% means the Team is Overperforming

ShotQuality Expected Points Per Possession in the In-Game

Actual Points Per Possession For in the In-Game

Percentage by which the Game's Actual Pace Exceeds the Pregame Pace

The Game's Actual Pace

Projected Pregame Pace (Average of Both Teams in Previous Games)

Live Consensus Point Total

Live Consensus Point Spread

Amount by which the Actual Total Points Scored by Both Teams Exceeds the total ShotQuality Points.

Amount by which the Team's Actual Point Differential Exceeds the ShotQuality Point Differential.

Closing Consensus Pregame Total

Closing Consensus Pregame Point Spread

Sum of SQ Points and Opponent SQ Points

Sum of Actual Points and Actual Opponent Points

Actual Points minus Actual Opponent Points

SQ Points Minus Points

Opponent Actual Points

Actual Points For

Expected Points Against

Expected Points For

Minimum Time Elapsed in the Game

A trip down the floor for a team

A scoring opportunity in the top third of expected value.

Luck

The combined score of both teams in any given basketball game. This is graded against to determine the winner of over & under bets.

When using the Daily Projections tool, this column shows the projected score from the ShotQualityBets Model of the team to the left of the column.

For players:

• Expected points scored per scoring opportunity (a true shooting attempt)

The difference, in points, between the current betting line and what the ShotQualityBets model projects the line to be.

The selected book column updates lines and prices when you change what sports book's odds you area showing on the Daily Projections tool. Showing any selected book, Consensus, or the auto calculated Best Line.

This indicates which side of a betting line the ShotQualityBets model is showing value on. Combine this with Points of Value to get the complete picture!

Adjusted ShotQuality (adj SQ) evaluates a team's shooting efficacy (adjOFF SQ) and defensive prowess (adjDEF SQ) adjusted for strength of schedule (teams facing tougher opponents see ratings adjust favorably, while those against weaker foes show a decline).

The winning percentage when the team was an underdog by the sportsbooks and won according to the ShotQuality score.

The winning percentage when the team was the pre-game underdog. An underdog is the the team or player that is expected to lose, based on the odds set by bookmakers or sportsbooks. The underdog is typically indicated by a negative point spread or moneyline.

The percentage of times the total ShotQuality score of the game went over the projected total from the sportsbooks.

The winning percentage when the team was favored by the sportsbooks and won according to the ShotQuality score.

The percentage of time a team covers the spread set by the sportsbooks regardless of whether they are the favorite or the underdog. For example, if the favorite is expected to win by 3 (spread is -3) and they win by 4 the favorite covered. Conversely, if the underdog is expected to lose by 3 (+3) and the ShotQuality Score had them lose by 2 the underdog covered.

The winning percentage when the team was the pre-game favorite. A favorite is the the team or player that is expected to win, based on the odds set by bookmakers or sportsbooks. The favorite is typically indicated by a negative point spread or moneyline.

Percent of times the team went under the closing line set by the sportsbooks. An "under bet" refers to a type of wager related to the total combined score of a game.

The percentage of time a team covers the ShotQuality score differential. For example, if the sportsbooks have a team expected to win by 3 and the ShotQuality Score had them winning by 4 the team covered. Conversely, if the sportsbooks have a team losing by 3 and the ShotQuality Score had them winning by 2 the underdog covered.

Percent of games won in the season

Percent of times the team went over the closing line set by the sportsbooks. An "over bet" refers to a type of wager related to the total combined score of a game. Before a game starts, oddsmakers will set a predicted total score for both teams combined. Bettors can then wager on whether the actual combined score will be over or under that predicted total.

Percent of games won in the season according to the ShotQuality Score which is based on the team's expected performance.

Expected wins and losses for a team, considering the quality of shots taken and allowed.

The percentage of times the total ShotQuality score of the game went under the projected total from the sportsbooks.