Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires as we are previewing the Final Four matchup between Purdue and NC State. As we put on the final touches on what has been an amazing season, the Wolfpack will be hoping this isn't their last hurrah. It's going to take everything and the kitchen sink to stop Edey and the wagon that is the Purdue Boilmakers. Let's dive in as I am playing both the spread and a player prop.
Max-a-Million Best Bets:
Purdue -9
Braden Smith Over 7.5 Assists
ShotQuality has this projected at about a 9 point win for Purdue but I think they win this one by double digits. The Cinderella run that the Wolfpack have been on has been fueled through the post and DJ Burns.
NCST is 10th in Post Up Frequency
NCST is 284th in 3pt Frequency
NCST is 337th in Rim Frequency
The shot selection has been clear and obvious for NCST and opponents just haven't been able to stop it. However, this will be DJ Burns tallest (literally) task he has faced during this run and I am suspect whether he has the same success.
NCST is 348th in SQ Shot Selection
The Wolfpack take some questionable shots already so with Edey taking away the paint, I am expecting an average or poor offensive display. On the other end of the floor, I think Purdue can get whatever they want and that starts with the ball in Braden Smith's hands.
Braden Smith is 96th %tile in Passing
Smith has been putting on a clinic since the start of the Big Ten tournament averaging 9.3 Assists per game. The Sophomore jump this point guard has made has been impeccable.
Zach Edey is the most important on the floor but Braden Smith is the engine that gets this offense going. Smith has gone over this assist line of 7.5 in 5 of the last 7 games. He has also reached 10+ assists in 4 of those 7 so don't be afraid to take a little alternate line.
Ultimately, Purdue is where the magical run ends here for NCST. This will be too much for them to handle and I am expecting some foul trouble as well for the Wolfpack. If Burns picks up some early fouls, I will likely be looking to live bet as well.
Best of luck everyone and enjoy our final days of college basketball, cheers!
About the Author
Max is a college basketball lover and a longtime gambler so ShotQuality Bets is the perfect match for him. Look for Max’s best bets on the Max-a-Million articles where he gives expert analysis on how to maximize ShotQuality data to make money. He did this successfully last season for us picking 56% and profiting 28.5u on over 300 plays! Currently he sits at 26-14 for March Madness so make sure to give him a follow on X!
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