Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to the second edition of NBA picks and analysis. Our first and only play was a winner as we had the under in the Bulls vs Heat play in game. I am looking to this Heat game again to hopefully find some more winners.
Boston's SQ Profile
The main thing that SQ points out about the Celtics is that they live beyond the arc.
Boston is 1st in 3pt Frequency (47%)
Almost half of the shots Boston takes are from deep and that played out and then some in game 1. In the first game against the Heat, the Celtics attempted 49 three pointers which accounted for 60% of their total shots!
They shot a substantially higher amount of threes compared to their regular season averages. The main question is whether this will carryover to game 2 or not. I think it does carryover, especially when you consider the opponent.
Miami's SQ Profile
The Heat have really struggled all year defending the three ball.
Heat are 28th in DEF 3pt Frequency
Heat are 28th in DEF 3pt Efficiency
Not only does ShotQuality say that the Heat allow a lot of quality opponent threes, but they allow these opportunities frequently. This really played out in game 1 as 7 of the 8 Celtics went over their 3pt line. For those who follow me on Twitter know I gave out a bunch of 3pt shooting props before game 1.
Celtics 3pt Props
Portrayed in the image above is a couple key SQ factors if you want to bet three point props. I included the %tile each player ranks in both frequency and efficiency, the number of three pointers attempted and made in game 1, and their current lines for game 2.
Max-a-Million Best Bets:
Derrick White Over 2.5 3PM (-120 FD)*
Payton Pritchard Over 1.5 3PM (-105 DK)*
Al Horford Over 1.5 3PM (+100 FD)
Jrue Holiday Over 1.5 3PM (-155 B365)
Sam Hauser Over 1.5 3PM (-130 B365)
*Best Bet (2u)
Again, I like any all Celtics go over their 3pt props but these are my favorites. I also parlayed a fun sprinkle on FD:
Derrick White 5+ 3PM & Horford 3+ 3PM (+2860)
I don't think 7 of the 8 Celtics players go over their 3pt props again but I would not be surprised if 5 or more hit their overs. Let's just hope the guys that do go over are on my card above!
Best of luck to anyone tailing!
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