Welcome back Max-a-Millionaires to our first NBA preview as I have a play and some insights for the final wave of play in games before we officially start the NBA playoffs.
The NBA playoffs is one of my favorite times of the year as it is no secret that the effort and intensity (specifically on defense) is greater. This makes is more enjoyable to watch and bet when you don't have to worry about who is on load management. Let's dive into what I am playing for tonight.
Max-a-Million Best Bet:
Heat vs Bulls Under 208 (play to 205)**
**I tweeted this one yesterday at the better line. Make sure to give me a follow to get ahead of line moves and for continued basketball content.
Pace of Play
One of the most important elements of betting a total is the pace at which the game will be played. ShotQuality points out in the image above that these are two of the slower teams in the league.
The Heat rank 29th in pace while the Bulls also play at a slower tempo ranking 28th. If you watched the Bulls previous game, you might be shocked at those tempo numbers as they were going up and down the court. This was primarily due to the fact that Hawks are 6th in tempo and they were the ones pushing pace trying to erase a deficit. I am expecting this game to much slower tonight.
Bulls Post Play
The Bulls are going to try and pound it inside in this matchup as they rank 3rd in Offensive Post-Up Frequency. This plays right into the hands of the Heat as they have a great rim protector in Bam. The Heat rank 3rd in Defensive Post-Up SQ PPP.
Heat Post Play
Like the Bulls, the Heat also frequently run the offense through the post as they rank 5th in frequency. Although the Bulls rank 26th in Adjusted SQ Defense overall, they do defend the post well. The Bulls rank 1st in Defensive Post-Up SQ PPP.
Bulls Shot Selection
Since the Bulls take about 40% of shots at the rim and in the post, the remainder have to be either from beyond the arc or in the midrange. A substantial amount of those remaining shots are coming from the midrange from the Bulls. 21% of Chicago's shots come from the midrange which ranks 3rd in frequency.
They take some tough shots as they rank 29th in SQ Shot Selection. This measures a team's ability to generate an open high quality attempt. The Heat defend well and since the intensity is turned up here in this game, I am expecting this continued poor shot selection.
Heat Shot Selection
Although not as poor, the Heat still rank 21st in SQ Shot Selection which isn't great. This should take an even bigger hit when you factor in the Heat will be without Jimmy Butler who ranks in the 95th %tile in creating his own shot.
Go back to last year when the Heat went on that incredible run. It was fueled on Jimmy Butler being able to take on the majority of the offensive load. They don't have that luxury here and the offensive output will take a hit.
If the scoring starts hot early, this will be a great opportunity live bet as well. However, make sure to always go over to the score center to compare actual score with SQ score and whether any value for a live under might be present.
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