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How does the players performance over time impact the shot?

For a given shot type, we analyze a player’s entire career, with greater weight on recent performance. This means if a player improves or declines as a shooter, his or her ability estimate updates accordingly, but such changes demand proof. A single hot or cold streak cannot throw our predictions off. During a player’s freshman year in college, every shot changes their ability estimate since we knew so little about him. By the time the same player plays in his tenth NBA season, his rookie season shots have very little weight compared to the last few seasons.


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