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PLAY TYPE DESCRIPTORS

What happened before the shot? I.e. transition, pick-and-roll, cut.

A play type describes the events before the shooting motion begins. Here is a quick list of examples:

  • Pick-and-roll
  • Cut
  • Transition
  • Post-up
  • Off-ball screen
  • Drive
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Example

With each play types, we do not know if the shot was a jump shot or a layup, but we learn important context for the shot. Transition shots generally face lower defensive pressure, cutting players receive a pass if their teammate sees an easy opportunity for them, pick-and-rolls create mismatches. These inferences and others made from the data improve model predictions. We observe how performance changes among similar shots, but with different play types.

Shot TypePlay TypeNCAAMNCAAWNBA
LayupsDriving47%43%50%
Non-Driving57%54%59%
Cuts64%63%63%
Non-Cuts54%53%54%
Jump ShotsTransition36%34%37%
Non-Transition34%32%36%
Pick-and-Roll36%33%39%
Non-Pick-and-Roll34%31%37%

SQppp Ratings Table

RATINGSQ PPP
Excellent1.10 or more
Great1.05
Above Average1.00
Average0.95
Below Average0.90
Poor0.85
Awful0.80 or less

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FILM REVIEW

Here are two Ryan Nembhard three's taken in the same game against Villanova

In both plays, Nembhard shoots a moving three with similar defensive coverage. However, he receives a 3.8 percent increase in the second shot because it occurs in transition. The model learns that transition offenses face less organized defenses without defined matchups. In this play, the contesting defender scrambles late to disrupt an open shooter. In the first play, Villanova switches, but Justin Moore confidently closes out, knowing that his teammates are in defensive position. Nembhard then rushes his shot a bit to get if off before Moore shuts down the opportunity.

Knowing that a shot is taken in transition unlocks all of these details not explicitly captured. As always with models, this is a generality, and we take care to properly handle the true complexity of these actions.

Winning Metrics

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