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SQ Points & SQ PPP

How exactly do we calculate ShotQuality?

Shot Quality predicts shot outcomes by evaluating the quality of each attempt. Each shot is graded on a 0-100 percent scale, which represents the likelihood the shot results in a made basket, and then is multiplied by the amount of points attempted to get the ShotQuality value.

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Example

We differentiate our model from others through the incorporation of individual metrics, because expectations should be different between Steph Curry and Dwight Howard when they take a long three point attempt.

For example, Chris Paul has an excellent midrange shot, he makes 55 percent of his elbow jumpers for a ShotQuality EV of 1.10. Russell Westbrook, on the other hand, makes 35 percent of his elbow jumpers for a ShotQuality value of 0.70.

SQppp Ratings Table

RATINGSQ PPP
Excellent1.10 or more
Great1.05
Above Average1.00
Average0.95
Below Average0.90
Poor0.85
Awful0.80 or less
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STATS

SPACING

Weighting a combination of 7 variables to quantify how much space a player or team necessitates, percentile (0-100). For example: Steph Curry is 1st ranking at 100, and Duncan Robinson is 2nd in the NBA.

SHOT SELECTION

If an average player took every shot, where your team would be in efficiency, percentile (0-100).

SHOT MAKING

How much more efficiently your team is performing compared to an average player taking each shot, percentile (0-100)

OPEN 3 RATE

% of total 3PA's that are open 3's (0-100)

COACHING ATO SQ PPP

The quality of shots (SQ PPP) a team is getting after a timeout. (0-100)

ASSISTS

There are three reasons why assists are a bad representation of passing:

1.

It puts too much value on the shooter

It puts too much value on the shooter making the shot rather than the pass itself. It could be an incredible pass to a wide open layup that the player misses and the passer gets no credit.

2.

THREE POINT SHOT IS MORE VALUABLE

A pass to a three point shot is more valuable than a pass to a two pointer, but an assist counts them equally.

3.

IGNORE PASSES

Assists ignore passes that lead to fouls drawn.


Threes vs Twos

The type of shot (2 pointer or 3 pointer) is always known, but calculating the percent chance the shot has of going in is the challenging part. Both of these pieces of information are important context when differentiating between all types of shots. So then,

Shot Quality =

3

Type of shot

X

0.25

% chance of going in

=

0.75

ShotQuality Value

There are two types of adjSQ:

adjOFF SQ = adjusted Offensive Shot Quality

adjDEF SQ = adjusted Defensive Shot Quality

Both of these stats represent each team's Shot Quality, but adjusting for strength of schedule. So, a team in one of the weaker conferences that played lots of bad defenses would have their Offensive Shot Quality regressed. Conversely, a team that played lots of good offenses would have their Defensive Shot Quality inflated. If you would like to see each team's non-adjusted stats, go to each team's page!

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Model

We differentiate our model from others through the incorporation of individual Over 90 variables are incorporated into the ShotQuality value for each shot. This level of granularity allows us to evaluate shot making and luck. The most important aspect in calculating ShotQuality is computing the individual player's shot making ability, and there are a plethora of factors involved in quantifying this. Here are a list of the variables


  • Player's 3PT shooting ability
  • Player's catch and shoot vs. off-the-dribble shooting
  • Player's deep midrange shooting ability
  • Player's short midrange shooting ability
  • Player's driving ability
  • Player's cutting ability (high-post, drop-off pass, or from screen)
  • Player's isolation ability
  • Player's ability curling off a screen for a jump shot
  • Player's FT%
    1. Single Bonus vs. Double Bonus
  • Player's free throw rate
  • Player's turnover rate
  • Shot Distance
  • Defender Closeout
  • Interior Defense
  • Blocked Shots
    1. Incorporating the likelihood of an offensive rebound or foul drawn
  • Elimination of Half-Court Shots
  • Percent chance of Offensive Rebound based on shot type and shot distance

While sample sizes matter, we are constantly looking for ways to maximize predictability and maintain good calibration. As you can see in the charts below, the more shots an individual player takes (roughly after only a game or two) the more calibrated their ShotQuality values are.

SQ Rim & 3 Rate

The rate at which each team gets a shot at the rim (drive to the basket or layup) or a three point attempt. These are the two most valuable shots in half court offense!

For instance

40 (Rim & 3 attempts) / 70 (Total Possessions) = 57% Rim & 3

RATING

RATING

Excellent

80% or more

Great

75%

Above Average

70%

Average

65%

Below Average

60%

Poor

55%

Awful

50% or less

Shot Quality

There are three reasons why assists are a bad representation of passing:

1.

It puts too much value on the shooter

It puts too much value on the shooter making the shot rather than the pass itself.

2.

THREE POINT SHOT IS MORE VALUABLE

A pass to a three point shot is more valuable than a pass to a two pointer, but an assist counts them equally.

3.

IGNORE PASSES

Assists ignore passes that lead to fouls drawn.


expectationsVsActualPerformance

Winning Metrics

See How we do it.

Have a question or suggestion?

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